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what are you talking about? are you so poor to not realize that many people and organizations have more than 250k in a bank?

I don’t know. Clearly the fed saw something given the news flow tonight. I’m saying that it’s too early to say it’s not systemic.

the GFC was foretold by hsbc’s americas unit in Feb 2007.

Radio?

It will be a good indicator if there is a confidence issue with investors. assuming rationality prevails and there aren’t runs on other banks, then: If other banks fail, that will take months to work out.

in a vacuum we were told that the chart of SVB showed it was going bankrupt and the chart of BOIL proved that the weather would get colder.

Yes. All the options and volatility products are deliberately mispriced. It’s how the banks make their money. It’s not known in the financial press because Biden is covering it up - but SVB failed because of its equity out exposure and volatility marks on them. The CBOE put them out of business...

The study I read used some form of IV rank. term structure is just a way of normalizing. For a strategy like this to work there would have to be some anomaly related to the flows (like people tend to overbuy the inverted term structures). That has not been my experience. Term structures are...

my car only runs on American oil at 3x the price of easier to transport foreign oil.

Dude. People with over 250k in SVB will lose some of their demand deposits. This happend like yesterday. No one is being irrational and this has nothing to do with politics.

I have read the opposite strategy is more likely to work. High vol tends to outperform and low vol tends to underperform.

This is part of the volatility conspiracy. by doing this the market makers have obfuscated the idea of infinite gamma to trick the masses into trading options.

Someone on this board said that SVB was predictable by the price action over the last two months.

I’m thinking of going long April wheat.

Since the price action was obvious, at what price did you short it at?

it depends on your thesis and the basis for it. If your thesis is mean reverting averaging down can be very profitable. If your thesis is momentum driven scaling up can be very profitable. I think the dogmatic guys don’t understand the nature of their thesis and then get confused.

joe Biden is living rent free in yours.

anyone who thought ARKK or any other equity is a safe haven is massively uninformed. They should give their money to a financial advisor.

You read his incoherent post and that’s your only question?

ARKK isn’t a comp for QQQ. Arkk is full of spec-ier companies. It is its own animal. Thus her genius. She created a product that didn’t exist and has been paid handsomely for it. I read recently her funds have generated like 400mm in fees. Whose the sucker in this dynamic?