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I hope it goes up, this means there will be more pressure on the CB to reval

The holy grail might be the HKD bet plus a SHORT on EWH(Hong Kong stocks). There is a financial/real estate HK ETF(TAO) but its quite illiquid and the short rate is -3.5% The EWH is way more liquid, short rate is less than -1%. Plus over 50% of the holdings are real estate/financial anyway So...

I will have to think about that

98% is the probability of how often the trade needs to be wrong for it to be unprofitable

Are you 98% sure he is telling the truth?

Its all a matter of time. SNB is too early on the game to give up(Odds the bureaucrats will want to lose face and reverse policy is minimal). HKMA is too long on the game suffering the consequences to want to stand for that longer, even then I'm sure the status quo will rein for a while, maybe...

It seems that HK 10y bonds are at 1.3x%, the Fed Twist might just add more downward pressure on their mortgage rates

According to my math the Kelly of this trade is 30%(Assuming 50% of working out, 50% of failing) This would lead to either a loss of 30% of gain or 2000% of your networth. Of course, this is way too high because the margin requirements would be gigantic, its always more prudent to bet less than...

Chanos should be jumping on this trade as a hedge because if he is wrong on China, it should be a winner Perhaps shorting select commodities/long HKD is a good trade here

After reviewing his videos, presentation and slides I'm thinking the HKD trade is very good Assuming a 7.79 rate, the down side is 0.8%(7.85 upper band), 0.5% carry cost plus spread. Call it 1.5% per year If there is 80% chance that Ackman is wrong in the next 12 months the expectation is...

Oanda

Does anyone has the Ackman presentation on the HKD?He says its on the CNBC site but I can't find it. So far this trade looks pretty good even though I don't have access to the options. A mega leveraged short on USDHKD will burn 0.5% a year for a return of 30%, that is 60x on your...

I was thinking the same thing this morning. Switching all my USD that is non-hedged(due fixed USD costs I have) to HDK. The cost is 0.5% a year. I'm going to see the ackman CNBC video and see if it makes any sense

The SNB inflation forecasts explain their policy http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/09/15/677996/snb-there-is-no-inflation-risk/ Once their inflation outlook changes, they will drop the peg. Not because they can't hold it but because central bankers usually(with some exceptions) care more...

lol, this is exactly why you are wrong on doubting the SNB can hold the peg. A committed central bank can hold a weak peg forever if they want to

I was talking about the situation in August, 'this is 2008' bottom has hold up quite well since them. From here it could get much worse

It seems to me that at these levels buying EURCHF is a low risk way to bet on 'risk on'. Certainly better than the stock market

I'm using Chrome and everytime I go to that site and open a few tabs there my computer gets really slow

Is it just me or the businessinsider/clusterstock website is extremely slow and shoots up CPU usage to 100%?

Vince Reinhardt to lead Greenlaw on MS http://www.zerohedge.com/news/former-fed-member-and-guy-who-came-idea-sell-treasury-puts-joins-morgan-stanley-chief-us-econom Now the MS interest rate research will be worth the paper its printed on. The dude was forecasting rate hikes for Sep 2010 if I...