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Looks like people expect Greece to miss its March payment and default

have you been able to code your methodology and if so, what were the results of the backtest?

How much was on net?According to my calc here it seems to have avg 1.15 cents per 100 shares. Probably all time low for this strategy?In the good days it was 2+, now the line to unprofitable seems be almost being crossed

how much of that came from opening strategies?

I mentioned 1/20 of kelly as a example to counter the flawled argument 'but you are going to go broke with kelly' I don't think there is anything special about 1/20. Could be 1/10 1/16

I do plan to run a hedge fund at some point, the reason I don't go after that right now is -I feel like I haven't been tested enough running my own money. I was fortunate enough to see how ridiculous easy money was to be long Fed futures that was the bulk of my returns. I'm yet to trade markets...

Guess now I noticed the side benefit of being long TLT. It also works as german bund and this EU news benefits the trade. Guess my mistake last year wasn't buying germand govs(I had all kinds of technical difficulties in the ETF liquidity and the futures contract size) but I should have went...

Actually scrap that. I can't find the yield on General Obligation bonds of NYC(Only NY state) but judging by the avg yield of GO bonds in US states there is not much juice(Maturity 2015 they yield around 0.6-1.5%) The NYC munis with high yield are revenue bonds, I will leave this for the...

I just noticed one can buy muni bonds(non ETFs) on IB. NY munis could be a good buy, someone told me they are yielding 5%+ and it seems likely the gov would not allow it to fail(NYC GDP is larger than Australia and just a bit smaller than Canada) I might park some cash there

The way that short was structured I was effectively short the EUR with a downside hedge, EUR could go to 1.45 and I wouldn't lose a penny but could make a bundle if the EUR started to go down against everything(Which I expected in the case of a meltdown) I would only lose if the EUR started a...

I did learn an important lesson from my mistake. I have never read anywhere about this type of trade but in late 2011 I wrote here about shorting the EURSEK and shorting the EURUSD with the same size(for a period I had this position on) When risk on was going ES would rally 1%, EURSEK would...

Something smells totally different about this recent EUR decline. The fact that it was so broad(dropping against so many countries) and quick makes me think this time its going to be persistent. It feels like whoever was propping up the EUR in 2011 has stepped out I'm considering increasing my...

Sickening. After I got out of short EUR/SEK the pair turned around completely from risk on to risk off. EUR underperformed tons of currencies. Just goes to show why I hate stops. I find that a lot of the time my thesis was correct and just hanging in there would be the right play. My mistake was...

If tax laws force you to pay taxes on the hedge, this could be a big problem

If the CHF rises to the ceilling I plan to shorting the CHF again. If the SNB were to drop the peg, the CHF would very likely add deflationary pressures(and swiss inflation is already negative), this would force the SNB to start a large bond purchase program to QE away the treat of deflation...

Anti tilson ETF mongers seem unusually quiet lately

I plan to hold for the next 6-12 months. I'm not inclined to short volatility however, I believe Bill Gross is onto something with this 'paranormal' thesis. If I'm going to be wrong on this trade I expect a decent chance I will be wrong by a lot(inflation accelerates)

You mean XLU or something like that?

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/switzerland/inflation-cpi CHF peg is not going anywhere

I purchased a position of about 7-8% in TLT(20y+ USTs). This is the first block, as I get more evidence of recession I will increase it I won't bet the farm here but it should help me protect my long stock portfolio and produce some kind of profit if I'm correct