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  1. M

    Trend Harmony , Updated Results

    Don't you agree the system would look a lot more viable if it traded 15, 20, or 25 markets at the same time delivering the same overall risk/reward characteristics as shown by your smaller basket?
  2. M

    Trend Harmony , Updated Results

    SB_REV.CSV CT_REV.CSV FX_REV.CSV HG_REV.CSV NG_REV.CSV TA_REV.CSV JY_REV.CSV Looks like Beans, Yen, Cotton, Copper, Natty and two others. 73.5% of profits in the backtest are derived from just 3 contracts (FX, JY + NG). I would be extremely skeptical of results produced with such a...
  3. M

    Mixed 2007 For John W. Henry's Funds

    Behemoth at 300m? "Dwarf" would have been more appropriate.
  4. M

    austinp quits coiled-markets over piracy

    Quantity Description Price 1 CM-Method Of Trading Educational Package $1995.00 LOL
  5. M

    At what time you will get out before the Fed meeting?

    I won't get out at all. I will review positions the next morning, like always. Same sh**, different day.
  6. M

    I don't buy this rally

    I see a lot of people are comparing this market to 2001/2002, where "Fed cuts didn't help". I am not sure if the tech implosion (topped by 9/11, Enron/Worldcom + Argentina debt default) is the right playbook. Go look at the charts of 1990/91. Financials were killed, rates were lowered, a bunch...
  7. M

    People are positioned badly again ahead of Fed

    I don't think the Fed news will be as important as the ISM and NFP numbers due later this week. The Fed already did it's job last week with the 0.75 cut. Now let's see how the economy is doing in Q1. Is it imploding completely as bonds are predicting... or is it?
  8. M

    I don't buy this rally

    I wouldn't go as far as calling the downtrend to be reversed, but the areas you outlined definitely require close attention. This could develop into something. This week has important datapoints (ISM, GDP, NFP), we will see how those sectors react to the data.
  9. M

    Will the S&P make a new high in 2008?

    Possible. Not sure if it's more likely than not as we're still in a downtrend IMO. Anybody who dogmatically rules out a change in trend shouldn't be trading.
  10. M

    Rogue trader to cost SocGen $7bn

    Yea, right. Now SG looks so much smarter and 'professional' - being ridiculed everywhere - than their US counterparts that wrote down their subprime losses the old-fashioned way. If you'd consider a cover up then you'd do it because you see a clear advantage doing so, not the opposite.
  11. M

    Rogue trader to cost SocGen $7bn

    I think at that size (~200k contracts, 5-8% of daily volume) in an already rapidly falling market (Nikkei + ASX were hit hard both Friday and Monday morning) things become less and less hedge-able. The #1 priority would be utmost secrecy and being as quick as possible rather than trying to save...
  12. M

    Here's the big picture

    You should consider changing your board nick.
  13. M

    Rogue trader to cost SocGen $7bn

    I'm curious to learn what they could have done better. a) Average down? b) Call around trading desks for a quote on 100,000 DAX future and 100,000 ESTX fut. option puts (oh boy that would have been sth)? c) Issue a press release "We're long to our necks in European futures and close to...
  14. M

    Rogue trader to cost SocGen $7bn

    Did you read the articles at all? You think they'd let every 100k junior handle $50bln worth of futures in a directional trade? The guy obviously found a workaround/hack to their security and risk analysis methodology making his trades 'invisible' to his supervisors... for a while. I love...
  15. M

    VMW earnings after close on Monday

    Down 19% AH. Timbeeeer.
  16. M

    VMW earnings after close on Monday

    Can somebody explain to an old skeptic like myself why VMW would have a market cap of $30 bln? Do earnings growth projections match the valuation?
  17. M

    Is rate cut a given next week?

    Tens of billion EUR worth of underlying stocks via CAC/DAX/ESTX50 futures. I've read figures that estimate the total volume 50-60 bln EUR.
  18. M

    Red Candles the last 2 days

    Lots of stocks in my small cap book are green or at least holding up very well while 2007 Nasdaq winners are still getting whacked. Constructive action IMO.
  19. M

    You still think RECESSION is coming?

    You always see that here on the board. We tank 5% and we're in a recession. We rally 5% and we're suddenly out of it. Pathetic.
  20. M

    let's sue Societe Generale for market manipulation

    So instead of saying "Hey guys we wrote down $7bln of bad debt" - like all of their US and Swiss competitors - Societe Generale devises a plot saying they lost the money due to a huge hole in their risk management instead. Like if that would make them look better and more professional. Are...
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