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I'm just saying there are unintended consequences to everything. I think the shale example was a poor choice because one of the downsides to keep rates low is the reach for yield and this spillover went into the MLP space with a vengeance. Of course they got crushed. Another bubble that popped.

VX right at the QTR and monthly A down. This premo looks attractive here.

Here comes the steam....:)

That has to be a bad number. That spread doesn't even move. How can the margin be that high? Is it because you have jan 19 vs jan 18?

No. Renewables benefit far more from subsidies and all that jazz. We do have a co2 mandate that has to be met by 2020 or 2025 whichever it is. So there are huge incentives to lending to that sector and it will only grow regardless of where rates are. Btw, I'm not arguing against the shale...

Actually low interest rates were one of the key drivers behind the shale boom. Energy companies are highly rate sensitive and most of the marginal drillers out there could never have stayed solvent without low rates and others desperately searching for yield and lending to them. I think you...

I just believe in principle that the easy trade is almost ALWAYS the wrong trade. So when markets are "overbought" it's easy to sell them and vice versa when they are "oversold". Basing patterns are easy traps because you get the bus people saying "it's can't break through". LOL. But yeah...

You can also see the reverse in the previous QTR when it was "running out of steam" at the QTR A up. Right before it ripped 1200 pips.

Here is a recent example with USD/CAD. It looked to be basing at the QTR A down over a 3 week period. But look at how much time it's giving you to get long. I mean when the train starting leaving the station, the conductor stopped the train and reversed it and came back to get you if you...

Where the hell have you been? LOL. Welcome back.

I see this exactly the opposite. And this is not even ACD related. When you see price levels holding at some level, in this case the monthly A up, the high percentage play is a breakout to the upside. The market does NOT give you this long to sell it and build your short position. It's a...

Really? Can you give examples.

If you are long an outright, for futures, there are two possible stops I use. One, a confirmed weekly A down. Two, a -7 or greater on the 5 day NL. I had an option position on so I trade those differently depending on the structure.

OK, just so we understand here and I know most of you guys don't have this down cold like I do, QTR levels are not used for simply exiting a trade. I use them as "long term trend exists". In other words, long term trends more often then not tend to end at their QTR levels. The issue here is...

Why would you have sold at the QTR A up? My number line only confirmed right below that around 1100. I mean that is the level it was actually breaking out at. Unless you were long from much lower levels, I wouldn't have sold there.

This is what I love about ACD. I use to look at moves like this and say the same thing, but in the context of ACD, you see how far extended above the QTR A up Gold got. And on the monthly you see it behaving quite normally. Failed A up and nearing the monthly A down.

No, you suggested to buy even further out on the curve. That is precisely what you DON'T want to do. When the market is in steep contango you want to buy the front end of the curve and hope the curve flattens.

Exactly. You could buy the ETF and sell the future and capture the difference.

As I've said before, when you buy a commodity, you are buying two things, the raw material and the cost to store it. There is NO way around that unless you want to buy the raw material yourself and store it in your backyard. Commodities are NOT stocks. You CANNOT simply average down. When...

The 50% premium IS the cost of logistics.