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Does anyone know what are these rumored measures? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9174661/Germany-launches-strategy-to-counter-ECB-largesse.html

I wouldn't be surprised if penny or low priced stocks historically have done worse than the 10% normal stocks have. People seem much too willing to drive these stocks higher chasing dreams of lottery type wins

HK stocks getting decimated

I spoke in the IB chat today and they initially lied and said the rebate was still on, I asked for more confirmation and they said it was gone. IB better do something about this because they fucked it up

Just do a quick trade during liquid hours and the cost goes to $1. Total cost should be a bit above $10 a month

Markets tend to price tax advantages and usually returns would be similar over a number of assets adjusted for risk But in your case I don't think it makes sense to buy foreign stocks with high yields. That is because those stocks trade outside your country and the markets there don't care...

NYFed: UR irrelevant, employment to pop ratio is more important http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2012/03/prospects-for-the-us-labor-market.html I'm surprised that it seems that Bernanke didn't mention that in his speech

You have to put Bernanke comments in perspective. I remember quite clearly when he flat out signaled to others in the FOMC that easing was necessary. This was in Oct 2008 when stocks were crashing and the Fed had not cut rates in many months, even after LEH failed...

Bernanke has said in the press conference that rates go up in 2014 and the balance sheet unwinds in 2015. I believe the majority on the FOMC also favors hikes first

Bernanke seem to be gearing up for quite a bit of revolt in the FOMC, but at the same time there is no way he would be going dove if he didn't think he had the votes so he probably do have the votes Interestingly enough this could be bad for my potential Fed futures trade as QEs usually are...

This variant view is correct, what is bizzare is that this latest 'Maybe QE' came out of nowhere, iexpectations were not weak, not even close to the level which they usually came out with to rescue the markets. Stocks too, usually have to do decline quite a bit(A investment house actually has an...

This would be essentially a pair trade. Its quite capital intensive if you want to generate a good return

Its tempting to buy those Fed futures after the Bernanke speech. They haven't rallied much, but I'm still not sure there is a lot of profit potential compared to the risks Bernanke seems to be giving the OT2 signal, EFF will rise

Austerity gets a bad rap among Keynesians because supposedly it just decreases GDP, increased the debt to GDP ratio and throws the country into an economic spiral. Those data are correct, what is not correct is to not acknowledge that some of the fiscal situation can improve despite those facts...

I'm short EWH. 50% of the ETF are finance, real estate companies. I wanted to short them specifically but I haven't found a liquid ETF in the US and I don't want to venture into stock picking in markets that aren't my main niche. Its unlikely my pick would outperform anyway

Let me clarify the %. I don't think they have a 10-20% of reval in the next 30 days but in the next 1 year assuming China does not blow up. If China blows up, I make more than my cost plus a profit in my short HK stocks

China can strengthen its currency gradually, HK can't. They are forced to deal with economic problems through regulatory and tax policy which limits their options a ton. A reval can cool down housing, money supply growth, inflation. Effectively tighten monetary policy to stop the bubble

See the 2011 Ackman presentation on the HKD. I agree with the RMB thing, they are not going to change the currency, not they will de-peg but they CAN change the level of the peg against the USD. Henry Tang confirmed that a couple weeks back The 2014 Fed pledge combined with the latest rally...

HK elections this weekend. I plan to buy a lot of HKD on monday and hold this large position for 1 month, then go back to the normal position I believe the chances of a reval will be higher than normal after the transition. I just hope I don't chicken out because if this trade works out it...

As far as I know the Fed model(Comparing stocks yields to USTs bonds) has been shown to fail to predict stock returns even for the longer term. I believe Hussman has some articles on that