Search results

  1. D

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I'm now long SPY at $221.35 avg. Might add a lilttle more if it drops. Stop at $218 or a close bellow $220. Thats the sign the market has rejected the all-time highs, I think. So, risking $2 bucks, trying to make, maybe $8 or $10
  2. D

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    If it turns out that Ackman is right about FNMA and it goes to $10+, that should lead to a flow into the PSH stock and the discount to NAV will narrow. Thats why its so attractive to buy it at 15-20% discounts, its almost sure that he will run hot again in the future. At the point the discount...
  3. D

    FNMA and FMCC

    As I mentioned in the link that m22au posted, there is a huge incentive for Trump to settle, exercise warrants and sell stock to the public. The AIG plan. He needs to fund all that fiscal spending and tax cuts, raising cash from the FNMA FMCC stakes is a good way to do that. The net worth sweep...
  4. D

    FNMA and FMCC

    I'm bullish and long both. Mostly likely scenario is that they settle suits with shareholders. Perhaps offering a 10% piece of the profits instead of the 0% they get now with the net worth sweep. Its still less than the 20% they were legally entitled to, but at least everyone gets to move on. In...
  5. D

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Here are some of the upside case for the stock Goverment stands to make HUGE money by privatizing. Will help fund Trump's bonanza. Much better than to keep collecting $10-$20b per year from networth sweep, that wont help much with the deficit or for persuading Paul Ryan to do the fiscal fest...
  6. D

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Keep in mind that the stock used to trade at $60-$70, and they are much bigger players in the mortgage market now. Even with gov exercising and selling their shares, 20% of this company is worth a lot
  7. D

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    "Trump’s 2 big picks for his economic team both say Janet Yellen has done a ‘good job'" - business insider
  8. D

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    This market has solidly held its all-time high levels. The market is speaking and I'm looking to join the trend
  9. D

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I bought some SPY today, and I'm looking to buy more on dips. Its based on the idea of 2300+ SPX. Stop around 2180-2160 on the SPX
  10. D

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I believe that by and large there are going to be 2 kinds of people dealing with the Trump corporate bonanza fest. The ones that will complain and cry about the 1%, about how it is all unfair as they watch wealth being created all around them and the ones who will profit from this and will join...
  11. D

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Obama pulled shit like haircutting GM secured bondholders, and the GSE networth sweep. Now guys with a different take on what the rule of law is, are going to take over the executive branch
  12. D

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    But of course, market will only buy the shares if networth sweep is annulled
  13. D

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    If the government pulls the AIG playbook, then they will sell their shares to the market overtime. They will raise hundreds of billions of dollars. That's pretty much the money that they need to fund the infrastructure spending without blowing out the deficit. So they got the ideology that help...
  14. D

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    FNMA FMCC is an important stock to watch for swing/position trades. If the bulls are right, the amount of wealth creation for longs there will be gigantic. I got my long-term positions but I'm planning to take certain bets for periods of time where the stock is likely to reprice higher. Right...
  15. D

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    The valuation of FNMA FMCC if shareholders are allow to own 20% of the company are around $20 bucks a share each. Of course, this might get settled for less than 20%. But still, it will be a good win for longs
  16. D

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    If the best case scenario plays out, he might make more there than what he lost on VRX. But dont let the bashers know that, it will ruin their day
  17. D

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    FNMA and FMCC starting to look like another hit for Ackman. I'm long both through PSH and with an external stake. Stock liked UST sec appointment, gapping now. Pro business adm and Goldman guy likely means good outcomes to shareholders
  18. D

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    From Valuewalk Stanley Druckenmiller: Was short the mkt on a Clinton win And was going to short more if rallied on her win based on the quagmire of no options left after 8 year experiment of low rates. But went long on Trump win on lower taxes and deregulation Sold gold when gold up 35$ on...
  19. D

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Druckenmiller says he is short US bonds, bunds, the EUR and JPY against the USD. These are interesting trades to consider
  20. D

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Essentially Trump will take over as the squeezer in-chief job from the Fed. The Fed made every short/skeptic job miserable for years, and they all pretended not to be doing it, yet the market saw through it. Trump now can do it shameslessly, people will have a lot easier time seeing it (and...
Back
Top