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The best books on FX are not FX books but economic books. I doubt most here will bother but of course that explains the high failure rate in FX trading by the retail crowd. The only two that I found useful that slowly helps you make that transition are: "currency trading and intermarket...

Let me further clarify something for you, in the land of FX, the ATM strike is NOT the ATM strike. The ATM strike is the forward. Therefore, when the interest rate differential is high (as in this case), what you think is an OTM call is really an ATM call. Just a heads up.

It's already been devalued substantially. I suspect it will actually get stronger. That aside, the options are probably not expensive, you may not be accounting for the interest rate differential which is substantial.

China. Anything China. Run a corr with WTI and Copper, Steel.....it's ugly man.

That's correct. It's both a perfect storm of demand destruction in the face of endless supply. And even worse for energy companies is the coming rising rate environment. Oh God, someone better katy bar the door. It's going to get ugly.

Well.....almost everyone benefits. Oil is priced into almost every product you use either directly or indirectly. As far as the dollar, while it has effect, it's not the reason for the decline. Although the strong dollar is not doing any favors for all shale companies drowning in debt...

The forward curve is pretty fairly priced. We just hit 4 trillion cubic feet of underground storage for the first time ever with a mild winter ahead of us. Sell the rallies.

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-08-20/optimists-were-wrong-to-predict-oil-prices-would-soon-rise-again

There is some bad economics here. Saudi's marginal cost for oil is $15 a barrel and they have more supply then God. The 60 to 70 dollar cost guys are the shale players and while they may not produce here they also have more supply on hand then God. They will be selling for the next year at...

Inverse Nat Gas ETF.

Surf, did you organize and run this event? If so, good job. I don't think I recognized anyone there. But that is not saying much.

I suspect the first fed rate high will send the market to the sky. I honestly think this trade is analogous to my long Bond call right before the debt downgrade in 2011. The whole world was leaning short into that event. I believe the same will be true in Dec and the shorts will get lit...

No,it further supports it. A blastoff to new highs and beyond in parabolic fashion.

No. I just know he is down there in Ft. Lauderdale. I spent a lot of time with him in Chicago. And he owns a nice pair of pink pants. I figured maybe Surf could draw him out. :)

You ever run into Pabst down there? The "pink" pants made me think of him. LOL.

I think you can rent those pink pants for the night for events like this. :)

Holy Chipotle! Wow.

It's the march/april 2016 natural gas strip. Often a good proxy for the overall product since the spread usually represents the last btu in winter storage.

Never thought I would see the widowmaker trade down to parity going into december. Oh my. The number line is like -1000. LOL.

Intra-day works fine. Just remember one of the core principles which is pick the right markets at the right time. Don't just trade oil every day or spoos because you "like" them.