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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.LOIS3:IND

If would solve a great deal if the ECB boosted the EU NGDP and took haircuts. It would take a lot of pressure off politicians and the EFSF

Random brainstorms here. Is the EU really in a serious problem?Looks like the authorities have embraced the idea of haircuts. They have shown willingness to TARP their banks(Dexia even got saved). Greek haircuts will be increased down the line, banks will be recapitalized. If Portugal and...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/sovereign-bond-yields-haves-and-have-nots " running equivalent terms, we also note exactly what we expected would occur has happened in GGB basis - the basis (CDS-Cash) has moved from around +115bps last Friday to -480bps today! " Markets seem to be waking up

Are you in any big trade lately?

I find it hilarious that the ECB donkocrats won't allow their bonds to be haircut. Its ok the threat of bankruns to exist as banks face losses but god forbid an institution that -is allowed to print money -does not have to borrow from anyone -has no use for its own capital -has plenty for...

Funny. Every single standard time frame I clicked on BRK has outperformed. Except the one you decided to put on

I meant short bonds and short CDS

As a standalone trade I wouldn't have the guts to go there but short bonds and long CDS could be a good trade. I'm not rich enough to do the trade though

BRKB soaring lately, its my only decent sized position(Little less than 10% of my assets). Its a shame I didn't buy more in the Buffet bottom I have been increasing shorts on EUR against NOK and SEK, it appears the the euro is strong but they have been falling consistently against those 2. I'm...

I forgot to note that the implied prob is probably lower than 78%. These bookmarkers tend to take a healthy cut of bets and this gets passed to gamblers in the form of worse odds

Hey Martin, If sov CDS are a scam product, why not short Greece CDS and collect that income for free?

According to this there is a 78% chance that Greece leaves the EUR http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2011/10/from-paddypower-not-the-same-as-the-intrade-odds.html#comments Since the chance seems to high, its better to wait for that in order to buy Greek stocks. I see that the...

Are you sure?If stocks keep their value in real terms you would only lose money if the FX depreciation would be higher than inflation, the real exchange rate fell. This could happen of course but what could also happen is stocks have a significant real gain as I believe was in the case of Argentina

I was assuming they would stay in EUR. If they get out you are right, in that case you want buy after they get out. But I dunno, if stocks are claims in real assets and can protect against hyperinflation why wouldn't they be a good protection against a move out of the EUR?Its hard to it would...

Short EUR/USD by the same amount you are long Greek stocks

I think so. Shouldn't be too hard to hedge the Greek currency risk, be it EUR or the new drachma though

Market rose more than 6x from the post default low(early 2002) to the top before the 1st significant correction(early 2004, where lots of traders would get out)

Argentina Stock market http://www.tradingeconomics.com/argentina/stock-market The market bottomed a few months BEFORE the external default(Wikipedia says default was in early 2002, bottom was in late 2001). Just goes to show, if you wait for the right moment you lose a lot of the move...

Might not be a bad idea at all. Big haircut to be announced soon and the runs seem to have started, panic bottom might come soon Does anyone know the best buy to buy a basket of Greek stocks? This could be a interesting way to hedge my EUR shorts(Thus enabling me to short some more). If...