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I agree with you on Citron. His business model seems to be quite misleading to his followers. I'm willing to bet he covers the vast majority of his short right after the report (I mean, like 1-20 min after). He then holds a small portion so he can claim to be 'still short' and give the illusion...

Correct me if I'm wrong but it seems that the VRX short case is -VRX did something wrong through Phillidor or another speciality pharma -Phillidor will be heavily fined -This fine will flow through Phillidor and VRX will have to pay. Because they are levered 4-1 they are in huge trouble Its a...

im shorting some Jan Fed futures contracts. I think they Fed will be hawkish this week. This is mainly a hedge for my 10y bond position. I think they will be hawkish because the main elements that lead to no hike in September are no longer there (stocks weak, inflation weak). Stocks are back and...

IB. Symbol is PSH, it trades on Amsterdam. He makes some mistakes sometimes but over the long-term he has had a very high sucess rate in his investments (from the top of my head he only messed up TGT JCP and maybe HLF). 20% compounded since inception versus something like 8% with few losers...

Neke, your position sizing method seems to be way too aggresive. I understand the temptation there, we want to make big money so we risk big. The problem is that its mathematically proven that its a flawed way to trade/bet If you look at this chart you will notice that betting 1.5 times the...

Because as a retail day trader you have the advantage of being small. Big money players can move stocks/markets by significant amounts when there are catalysts (be it technical or fundamental). A small player who can read their intentions to buy or sell (using charts, tape reading, news...

What you are saying is true however the rules weren't set by people with resonable standards. Sending orders with no intention of having them filled can be considered manipulation by the SEC. I'm told that some prop firms are even warning their traders against doing that because it does violate...

Yes it can be considered manipulation. Everytime you put an order you have to make sure you want to get filled. If the sell orders you put were solely sent in order to drive the algo ask down (and the true intention was to go long the stock) that can be considered manipulation. Now if your...

Thanks man. Win or lose I just want to keep it real. We can all learn together and make more money in the future as a result. This EU QE rally delivered a great lesson for all of us, you got to chase the rally and hold. I didn't do that and we can all learn from that for the future. Dalio says...

Ackman fund up 10% in 24 hours, BR bonds also up on this central bank ease fest. Those were small positions however, I really missed the SPY long yesterday and EUR short. The ECB ease caught me of guard, I don't follow EU stuff all that much. The playbook to play a QE announcement is to buy the...

I also bought Brasil gov bonds denominated in USD. 2024, yields 6%. Total $USD BR debt is $30B, FX reserves is $670B+. It simply does not make sense to default in them. I can go into the many margins of safey that these bonds have if anyone wants. There is a lot of them, I really think this debt...

Furthermore most of the VRX move yesterday was the result of a erroneous report. That stock is either worth $250+ or $0. with the mispricing of yesterday its a good point go get in (indirectly). Decent R/R

I started to buy Ackman's pershing fund that trades in Amsterdan. Even if VRX goes to $0 (which is a huge if), his drawdown will still be smaller than in 2008 (in fact, a lot smaller if you consider his peak to through in 2009. And yet, almost half is capital is now permanent (not subject to...

The flaw in that article is that it does not take into account the smaller productivity growth that would result in taxing the wealthy more. If you taxed those groups more, they would have less to save and invest, the government would have more. Usually, government investments are not as...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-18/goldman-mocks-constitutionally-dovish-fed-sees-december-rate-hike-odds-60-offset-cre more on rate hike risk. Hatzius is one of the few out there that can actually read the fed. Back in 09/10/11 he was saying the Fed was going to stand pat for years, the...

it depends how you define 'actual unemployment', the government has a number of different rates using different assumptions

I'm sure they fiddle around with the numbers a bit but overall they are likely to be accurate. Its not like the chinese figures that they put once, never revise and it also doesn't match some of the data 'on the ground'. if the US figures were off by a lot from stuff like trade data/retail...

im not sure I understand, what do you mean?

I'm starting to think that the next surprise could come from a hawkish fed. The elements that prevented a rate hike in September were inflation and financial conditions (Fed speak for 'stocks are down'). Both these issues have reversed somewhat since then The 16% trimmed-mean and median CPI...

SPY rallying big time, glad to be out. Don't want to fight this. who knows, maybe they will take this back to 2100. Its stupid but its their money i guess