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covered SPY as well. holding up too well. the money was in shorting gold, unfortun, the only thing i didn't short

Big miss 4 me in gold. Didn't help that steve liesman took 5 minutes to mention the 'if we hike in december' line. how the hell he missed that in his first reading is beyond me

Thank Jan Hatzius, he is the one making the bold call that the market underpriced the Dec hike meeting chance

I guess I should have shorted Gold instead. it tends to move more predictably off the Fed. I always forget that

Had to cover the IEF , 30y is very strong into this sign that the trade won't work there

I shorted SPY, IEF (bonds) and more fed futures into the hawkish statement but I will manage this like a day trade. The surprise might play out over the next hours/days

Macro Man makes some points on why the Fed might not be hawkish http://macro-man.blogspot.com.br/2015/10/just-in-case.html Its hard to have a strong view either way. I'm short Jan Fed futures mostly as a hedge

Also, the risk that you take buying the futures has to be weighted against the risk of doing nothing. Doing nothing costs 1.5-2% per year (inflation), so if doing something on average will help offset that. its a decent idea

Buying and hold a 10y bond to maturity is very similar to rolling a 5y future over and over again. The 10y has more duration risk at first but since that declines over time (as it gets closer to maturity) the average duration will be similar to the 5y future. Point is its a very low risk...

Good stuff. Unfortunately, us non-US folks don't have access to treasury direct

For brokers that allow you to buy bonds, its very natural to buy it and use it as collateral. The tricky part is when you have a broker that does not allow bond buying and perhaps even futures buying (I have a couple like these). It feels unnatural to go long something in another account, in...

Its important to note that this only applies to solid winning traders. If the trader is a losing or an uncertain winner, than the cash is not safe and hence you don't know how big of a bond future position to buy

I've realized that there is a better way to do this without taking on the duration risk of the 30 or 10y. You can use futures and buy the 5y UST bond future. So, if the trader has $100,000 in an account that does not pay interest, he can go long the 5y bond future and 'effectively' earn 1.4% (or...

Its an idea but I rather to go to the fed funds market directly. I find it more rational than equities

Ackman announces call to discuss VRX. I wouldn't want to be short this. He can talk openly about it as he has no legal issues like management has which means he can address everything and speculate about what is going on. The story provided by him, if markets find credible, will clear the...

It seems crazy that the guy would be market ordering 100-300 lots into the thin liquidity of that day. He would be having a ton of slippage. I'm not sure a good trader would do that so it looks fake

And the bronte guy, well. half the stuff he posts he sounds brillant and the other half he sounds like a total idiot. I remember back in the day (2008) I argued via email back and forth that Washinton Mutal was going bust (he was long the sub debt), he kept saying I was wrong. Same thing...

Heck, even if there is a 50% chance for every of these events happening (which sounds quite optimistic for the shorts given that the well paid lawyers would have to be wrong half the time). The final chance still comes out at 12.5%.

As I said in the other thread, you need three events for that to happen -They did something illegal even though they are lawyered up -They get a huge fine -Limited liability (one of the key compoenents of US capitalism) does not work and they are forced to pay for Phillidor even though the...

Yes, they were better reports. What they lacked was any kind of valuation of the stock as a result of their allegations. They also lack any kind of experience in law to be able to asses what they were complaning about. Meanwhile, VRX has hired outside firms in addition to its own lawyers to make...