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  1. Sergio123

    what is 20-year bond rate does TLT=100 imply?

    When I first read this post, I thought there was an interest rate opportunity, but then I asked a different AI and it said this: To calculate the implied interest rate of long-term treasuries based on the TLT ETF, you can use the following approach: 1. Look at the 30-day SEC yield of TLT: The...
  2. Sergio123

    How hard is full-time Trading

    Ive ridden in plenty of Ubers on the way to the airport where they would ask about my work and my take on the economy and the driver would trade from their phone while waiting for rides to come in.
  3. Sergio123

    How hard is full-time Trading

    What kind of job? Would you get a technical job like a software developer or something like a resteraunt waiter or Uber Driver to talk to people and gauge the economy?
  4. Sergio123

    Semi Conductor stocks are weakening- not good!

    I am taking the viewpoint that chip stocks rally for a bit from here. My target for the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is 5600 before stalling out in this rally.
  5. Sergio123

    How hard is full-time Trading

    If you find trading a low volatility market as boring then go back to sitting in your car while stuck in traffic on your commute, or in a pointless and boring meeting with a bunch of idiots talking nonsense.
  6. Sergio123

    How hard is full-time Trading

    I don't see it as competing against the large entities. We are basically scavengers.
  7. Sergio123

    How hard is full-time Trading

    I believe that you can do it full time if you have a well rounded skillset. But you need to be your own Market Strategist, Risk Management Department, Software/IT Development team, Quantitative and Chart analyst all operating as a one man show. AI tools definitely help. They say that 1...
  8. Sergio123

    How hard is full-time Trading

    I consider myself a full time trader with a full time job. I consider my day job as just a low volatility investment that returns a steady paycheck, comprehensive benefits, retirement savings, and credentials for mortgage, etc. I mostly trade ETFs and spreads. I study the markets in the evenings...
  9. Sergio123

    Trump in Damage Control Mode After Abortion Comments

    I think most people are in agreement in instances of rape, as it bypasses natural sexual selection.
  10. Sergio123

    Trump in Damage Control Mode After Abortion Comments

    I will clarify the position on Abortion, because the media would throw a hissy fit if Trump spoke true words. Choose Life: Do whatever the hell you want: Any questions?
  11. Sergio123

    Is this arbitrage?

    Its ok because plastic surgery and modern HRT have reduced their theta decay.
  12. Sergio123

    Is this arbitrage?

    Bad analogy...... Older ladies are harder, more expensive, and less fun. Younger ladies are more like trading with TA.
  13. Sergio123

    Is this arbitrage?

    So should basic accounting. Its not an arbitrage in any accounting system that I am familiar with.
  14. Sergio123

    Is this arbitrage?

    C'mon now....What kind of engineer are you? When I first started, I went down the path of studying Black-Scholes, probability distributions, and Brownian motion before I got into standard TA.
  15. Sergio123

    How does a edge disappear?

    As stated before different people define edge differently. I don't consider it an edge but I now have a technical based strategy that is robust enough to work most of the time in the tickers that I trade. I think that I will be able to use the base of this strategy in perpetuity. But I don't...
  16. Sergio123

    Spending money in Illegal Aliens takes money away

    On the same token, immigration may need to be expanded from Asia. Its the only way that the CHIPS Act has any chance in hell for success.
  17. Sergio123

    The new foucus will be employment numbers

    It shouldn't change anything...... Bad news = Good News = more easing or less tightening. Good News = Bad News = less easing
  18. Sergio123

    Spending money in Illegal Aliens takes money away

    I imagine that their loyalties will be tested in the coming years. They will be given opportunities to demonstrate exceptional Patriotism.
  19. Sergio123

    Spending money in Illegal Aliens takes money away

    AI and automation can takeover much of the administrative, bearuecratic, clerical, and even creative endeavors. But it can't takeover hardy, dirty manual labour yet.
  20. Sergio123

    Spending money in Illegal Aliens takes money away

    Global population is still ticking higher to around 8.2 billion.....just not in the West. https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/#:~:text=8.2%20Billion%20(current),Nations%20estimates%20elaborated%20by%20Worldometer
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