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  1. Sergio123

    Are options a waste of time and money? (pun intended)

    It's usually done with a defined risk call credit spread. The market could also rip 'you a new one' while you are short the shares in the underlying. Without long calls you theoretically have infinite risk.
  2. Sergio123

    Are options a waste of time and money? (pun intended)

    You would need to time the selling of the underlying before the down market, otherwise you could have held on to all of that risk without any profits to show for it. If you at least keep rolling covered calls while holding the underlying then you at least made cash flows along the way while...
  3. Sergio123

    Are options a waste of time and money? (pun intended)

    If you don't want to manage all of these contracts on a daily basis (and I don't fault anyone who doesn't want to) then a buy and hold of shares will be better, IMO.
  4. Sergio123

    Are options a waste of time and money? (pun intended)

    You have to trade in the context of your overall position and what you are trying to accomplish as well as the purpose of each contract. How did it go against you: Theta decay? Price fell? Volatility crush? If I am bullish then I am short puts to expense the long calls and if I am bearish then...
  5. Sergio123

    Are options a waste of time and money? (pun intended)

    Here is a pointer: I never allow my long options to expire to $0. From experience, that is the #1 killer. I simply roll it and then sell against it for a credit. Eventually you should be able to make profits through collecting cash flows all the way into perpetuity. You also need to manage your...
  6. Sergio123

    Shorting Treasury Bonds

    I use TBT and /10Y. The yield curve needs to correct eventually. I am waiting about 14-15 months. There is a certain embarrassment. A Buffoon that needs to be GTFO'd.
  7. Sergio123

    Commodity Prices

    I am glad I didn't waste time reading the article. It's not very through and it talks about oil and the petrodollar and the reason it gives is just very ambiguous....'structural changes'. Yeah ok.
  8. Sergio123

    Drawbacks of Dispersion trading?

    What is their to wrap your mind around? Sell Straddles and buy /VX contracts when things get dicey. Easy Peezy.
  9. Sergio123

    24-hour SPX options, which brokers trade them? And do they trade decently?

    Options on the /ES and /MES should trade 24 hrs. on every platform.
  10. Sergio123

    Commodity Prices

    What do you mean? It's a financial instrument to make money on by buying low and selling for a higher price than what you bought it for. Just like metal and agricultural commodities. I didn't make the decision to classify it as a commodity instead of a security. That was the CFTC and SEC.
  11. Sergio123

    Commodity Prices

    Bitcoin is classified as a commodity. So if the article only mentions oil vs the dollar and not Bitcoin then it's not very throrough.
  12. Sergio123

    Commodity Prices

    What are the summary cliff notes from the paper on why this is happening? There was no Bitcoin or crypto in the past either. Bitcoin has a half trillion dollar market cap. Companies with a trillion dollar market cap is also a relatively new phenomena. The difference from the lost value of the...
  13. Sergio123

    Nasdaq special rebalance impact on NQ/MNQ

    Price of the Index will just do whatever it does. I am sure that they are trying to figure it out now, but I think less Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, Tesla, Amazon. More Crowd Strike, PANW, Cisco, LRCX, MRVL. This is of course all just speculation.
  14. Sergio123

    Commodity Prices

    Everything is priced in dollars. The value has to go somewhere. Now check it against every other commodity, stocks, currency, crypto, etc.
  15. Sergio123

    How do stocks have such high daily volume?

    Not hard to fathom with Machines and Algos. Black Rock holds about 62 million shares of SIRI. Vanguard holds about 56 million. State Street around 24.5 million shares. Even if retail doesn't buy that many shares of SIRI directly we buy it through the ETFs that trade the shares for us.
  16. Sergio123

    Banking Giant Goldman Sachs Ranks Bitcoin As World Best Performing Asset

    Over the past 1 year it has a standard deviation of 4% and a return of -37%.
  17. Sergio123

    TQQQ an OK investment over the long run? For a 401k

    Sure. It's all just about the management. QQQ, TQQQ, SQQQ. Shares, Long Calls, Short Calls, Short Puts, Long Puts. You can make it all work the same.
  18. Sergio123

    A simple, yet effective trading strategy

    Long Volatility at the close. Sell Volatility at the open works better on most days. The market settles down after about 10:30 am and Bid/Ask spreads usually get tighter throughout the day.
  19. Sergio123

    New business ideas for options brokerage firms

    Then they should use index options.
  20. Sergio123

    QQQ, SPY Jun 30th 2023 Put Options

    I would look to short Tesla, and basically anything having to do with battery chargers. The Green New Deal infrastructure spending is going to need to be cut. I am thinking the default day happens, the long end of the yield curve spikes and that's when the Fed actually pivots. Not to bail out...
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