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Overreacting. I doubt any "smart money" feels this way.

We had a .com bust in 1929 before the Internet existed? Okay, I'll assume you meant a stock market crash. I would argue that the stock market crash is a symptom, not a cause. The cause would be the underlying fundamentals of the economy. Over extension of credit being the major factor. There...

Even if the economy crashes right now... It wasn't because of coronavirus. It was because of over extension of credit due to economic success since the Great Recession ended.

Technically, there was no recession in 2001. There were not two consecutive quarters of GDP decline. What caused slowing (sometimes negative) growth? I would guess over-extension of credit due to the economic success of the 1990s. It was more of a correction than a recession. Definitely wasn't...

9/11 didn't cause a recession. Irresponsible lending practices caused the Great Depression. Maybe you are the one who is steps behind. The closest thing to a supply disruption causing recession that I know of would be 1979 Iranian revolution causing oil supply problems.

Name one instance where a supply chain disruption led to a recession.

What affected markets more? 9/11 or Great Recession?

I meant that 2% of people that are infected die. 98% survive. I saw this on a sign at the airport. Either way, if markets do go down, it would be because of an underlying economic reason such as too much lending.

2% of China is going to die? Lol. Currently it's 2747 deaths in China out of 1.4 billion population. That's 0.0002% You'd have to multiply that by 10,000 to reach 2%.

83,000 cases. 2800 deaths. 33000 recovered. 46.5k currently infected. Out of a global population over 7 billion. That is not enough, in my opinion, to alter the economy. Other than in people's sentiment. It's not exactly the Bubonic Plague where 33% of the population died.

I guess so too. Cause those 2 have always moved together in the 6 months since I bought them. Now if you see the unemployment rate go up, then I think gold will go up also.

They don't need a vaccine. It has a 2% fatality rate. The epidemic will eventually end itself.

I thought the value of gold wasn't in it's value to retail jewellery owners. I thought most of it is stored away in vaults. The owners never see it and they trade pieces of paper, or digital contracts stating they own it. It's value is in a store of value in times of economic uncertainty...

The only thing to trigger new waves of selling would be actual bad economic data. As scary as a virus is, it isn't economic data. It won't destroy humanity. It has a 2% fatality rate.

I'm wondering why gold didn't go up in a corresponding amount. And the 3x Gold Miners ETF (NUGT) I used to own lost almost 17% today. I would have thought the opposite would happen.

If it goes any higher and I would have made money, then my original prediction was correct... That safe havens would go up through 2020. Unfortunately I had to sell to pay for something else.

I mentioned before that I bought two safe haven bets (TMF and NUGT) back in September. They were at times down over 25% combined, but as of today I would have finally climbed back to even if I had not sold in November/December. There was a big gain in safe havens based on speculation in the...

How do you know that's actually what's doing it?

1. Because I have a business with practically 100% guaranteed profits that I still have room to expand. 2. Because these types of events (overreacting to news) don't happen regularly enough to do every day. And I'm definitely not 100% sure that I wouldn't lose lots of money if I tried.

Funny that I actually guessed correctly that it would beat expectations. Although I do know it was luck. I did something like you said one time betting against the Norweigian Krone (NOK). It was after an attack by Yemen on Saudi oil facilities... The price of NOK went up because it's...