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He looks like me. I make a case for PFE in this thread and offcourse it immediately sinks >10% :rolleyes:

Thanks for the update :):thumbsup: I thought you bought some nonethelyouess, but you wait till your price is hit. What are your thoughts on CPRT ? (also bought some). Do you expect a jump after earnings tomorrow where after you immediately take profits? Or does it all depend on how it behaves...

@vanzandt CPNG is almost at your buy level, curious if this is going to be another BABA for you :thumbsup:

So there is beautiful software for this, and I bought SPY data from CBOE and honed my python and excel skills to do the analysis. If only I had known :)

I also use puts for continuous protection. In my rigorous backtests the longer dated, the better. I chose somewhere between as 1.25-1.75 year as an optimum expiration level. The longer dated puts have lower delta, but higher vega. With this in mind, you can also play with a different number of...

Well that's very, very nearby....I should pay them a visit :)

Yes it did, not an immediate real reaction however. Hope your CPNG will have made its bottom:thumbsup:

I don’t know about problems. It is a bit of an intuitive call, but I see some signs where I think a good trend up for PFE comes into play. I mean a longer bullmove like 1-2 years. Reasons: Could get ‘monopolized’ profits in vaccins, or at least a very dominant player. Q2 results where very...

PFE also seems on the rise for the last month. There is a lot of OI in calls in the option chain. Maybe people bet on a catch-up to MRNA?

Does this has anything to do with the construction (bull put spread) perse? For liquid options like on spy or qqq I always use market. I often close in the last 10 minutes of trading and the market can move fast then. For more illiquid stocks use the method @taowave described, although i never...

Hi Dest, your recommendation for NVO was spot on. Was the growth in the stock also a longer term investment idea (say 1-2 year)?

Lee lowell - Get Rich with Options I remember reading something like 'Hey just sell the dotm puts, what's the probability they will go itm?' Something as utterly basic as expected value was nowhere to read in it. Bizarre.

Sorry i do not agree with the low or no mortgage. Current mortgage rate (in my country) comes close to 1.0%, where average yearly prices rises with 9%. The 9% includes crashes like 2008. So it is a no-brainer to use your house as an investment vehicle on the side. Besides, when I am able to...

CPNG seems to be creeping up.. let's see if it can go up the next days. Sold last minute some calls ( only covering 25% of long position ) based on the serieus doubts @vanzandt was putting in the thread. Don't like to change mind lastminute but had to :) Hope this was it guys. Buyed some extra...

In the same boat here with CPNG. However, history has taught me not to react to this moves. Furthermore, this company has also imo long term perspective.

Hi stonedinvestor, if you like to see the hedge funds investing you can also watch https://whalewisdom.com/stock/cpng. Click on column % of portfolio to rank to biggest holders, and see mutations. (but you probably already know this site) Btw guys i always like to read your thread, nice work!

For seasonal weakness, a few months ago I made this (simplistic) seasonal analysis with spy data for week and month numbers:

+5.10% ...

kNN uses distances and classifies neighbours as minimizing these cumulative distances. This is all done in your 'train' dataset. You do this to establish a probability a record will also be 'rightfully' classified. But maybe this is a discussion never ends :) I've done a lot of modeling myself...

yes, but how is the output UP/DOWN calculated, it is based on probabilities itself. The model just calculates the parameters with the highest probability of 'predicting' your input dataset of past data. This is what the classification calculation is based on. It is always a probability. outcome...