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  1. Z

    Managing Vertical Spreads

    No one can give a straight answer to this. Basically you are asking: "When I am net long, and my underlying instrument is decreasing in price, what can I do ?" Some considerations: - Important one: does your bias of the instrument future price changes with this new information? And if so, in...
  2. Z

    Data Science approaches and curve fitting

    I have a background in DS (job). I think it is rather impossible to find something using your laptop or cloud computing and your Python and R scripts, given the AI competition. You use only price as input? I think a simple momentum system eg ‘If it moves it moves’ will have better results (I...
  3. Z

    I'm going to mostly cash in Long-Term portfolio

    In general when you put in a hedge for a postion your margin will be less, since your risk down. If the market moves in direction of your hedge you can eventually close your hedge
  4. Z

    I'm going to mostly cash in Long-Term portfolio

    Hedging can give a lower drawdown. If your profit/drawdown ratio increases you can make relatively more profits by risking more. Suppose your capital =100. In 1 year you can make 12 and from historic perspective you estimate your max drawdown = 50. You can set up an hedge which costs 4 and...
  5. Z

    I'm going to mostly cash in Long-Term portfolio

    you ‘save’ money and will be able to buy more at lower prices
  6. Z

    ES Journal - 2021/2022

    It sure does..always be careful indeed. I just like the calls being made in this thread:thumbsup: and try to bring perspective
  7. Z

    GBA Presents: THE GREEN MARKET

    Probably, but he knows how to talk around. Vix > 35 is relatively rare, and an opportunity I think
  8. Z

    ES Journal - 2021/2022

    You are right, but vix is near 35 now. That doesn’t happen often, and when it does, it will collaps the next trading day
  9. Z

    GBA Presents: THE GREEN MARKET

    I see some companies EVLV, ZI, LAZR won’t dip further. Probably buying oppurtunity?!
  10. Z

    GBA Presents: THE GREEN MARKET

    Vix 35 now. Of you look historic perspective the next day ( monday) it will be down most of the time.
  11. Z

    NQ Fully Automated Trading System

    Exactly, declines behave 'different' from rises. Some methods work in both ways, others don't. It all depends. Since we don't know the inner workings it's not possible to asses.
  12. Z

    NQ Fully Automated Trading System

    I do not know if it's possible, but you could ''flip'' your method to perform in a bearmarket, or trade your same method on an inverse instrument. Then you can mix money allocated to both 'methods' and maybe reduce your drawdown (the mix offcourse doesn't have to be 50/50). With this, also be...
  13. Z

    GBA Presents: THE GREEN MARKET

    Just bought some zi here@vanzandt
  14. Z

    GBA Presents: THE GREEN MARKET

    It could be interesting to set up a short vix, especially if this goes > 30 Selling ditm calls would be best I think, they will probably trade at a discount.
  15. Z

    GBA Presents: THE GREEN MARKET

    Another idea: Using twtr puts 16 sept 22: - 55 strike + 45 strike - 35 strike Should go for debit/credit around 0. Basically capping the upside and trade it for a cushion till 35 for it. I personally do not like capping upside, but it may be usefull for someone here.
  16. Z

    GBA Presents: THE GREEN MARKET

    It really is sometimes crazy to see the returns if you just .... sat on your hands. Had this experience a lot more than I like to admit :banghead:
  17. Z

    GBA Presents: THE GREEN MARKET

    I'm also using this type of strategy. Currently owning a lot of pfe calls 60. (not 'leaps' anymore btw, march 22) I try to sell shortdated calls - around atm - against them when I think they are overstretched to mitigate the costs of the premium, and (hopefully) catch a countertrend part of the...
  18. Z

    GBA Presents: THE GREEN MARKET

    :thumbsup::thumbsup::):)
  19. Z

    GBA Presents: THE GREEN MARKET

    Van is very busy loading up on SNAP at this level I think? :thumbsup:
  20. Z

    Tail hedging longterm passive portfolio

    I agee the probabilities are on your ( our) side, you can’t asure the next drawdown will be different from the ones before. We only have a finite dataset
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