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So, they pretty much bought for 6-7 years before any kind of bk? lol to the shorts

VRX in talks to sell Salix for $10b. I was able to add when the news came out. So it looks like the 'desperate' 'bad investor' Ackman who was just 'talking his book' and said the phone was ringing off the hook was right after all

Of course, I'm assuming, they wont be clobbered by bad news way before that earnings report. If that happens, then they asked for it. Thats why I cant long it too early to hedge, better to wait and react to something in the chart that suggests accumulation

The thing is, because longs are in a covered call position right now (taking 100% of the downside but having little to no upside), they hate their position. But they will be in a good spot for that earnings (in terms of risk-reward). The question, when will they realize that

I might even be forced to be long before that earnings antecipation ramp. I bet a lot of people will be visiting clubs and trying to measure the volumes of their business to notice some kind of drop or stabilization before earnings. So the ramp might start sooner

That HLF stock is in a interesting point right now. I think the stock has little to no upside all the way to the first earnings release after the FTC changes (Q2 release on Q3 2017 I believe), no long will keep buying at higher levels without the confirmation of that release. But longs are...

And by hedging out, I mean shorting ES, mex peso, sell risk across the board, buy vol, etc

As far as the Trump thing goes, seems that everyone decided to hedge at the same time. The odds from betting markets doesnt seem to have changed much today Hillary Daily Trump The change came out after the FBI news, today these things barely moved. But it appears that everyone decided to...

Gold and gold stocks seem to be back to being a good hedge. Thats why I didnt want to liquidate with the crowd into that 200MA test. I will bail out of gold when it decisively loses that kind of level, until then, no reason to sell

As as far criminal stuff goes, Merk suvived Vioxx, which actually killed people. Plus dozens of other settlements the pharma industry had over the years without a 'suit induced bk'. I dont think there is a presdecent to that. To think that an accounting suit will bring down VRX seems a big...

If the shorts were to model the chance that the bulls are right (and the stock being worth $60+), very quickly a short at these levels becomes a negative expectancy bet. I'm not the one claiming to be 100% right...

I do plan to do a little bit of a better job at taking some gains during those big pops and then adding back in panics. If I can do that better (as a long there is no big positive catalyst), then those gains alone should protect me from any downside.

So far the bears have been right about that sentiment trade (how the market would feel about the possible bullish and bearish realities) but for the actual reality (which reality is the correct one) that jury is very much out, and it will take YEARS to find out I do know that now its the worse...

And I'm not talking about the short case that was made at $160 or $100. At $18, they need a really darn good case to stay in. I'm yet to see a good bear thesis that doesn't involve pretty much 'im 100% right and everybody else is wrong'

Well, I have. From the very beginning I considered that the stock was a possible $0. Thats why I hedged at $100. As a result, I only suffered half the loss from VRX all the way down to $30s. At that point I saw the long side offered a much more attractive side. So did the shorts, at least in...

It appears that Hempton is no longer short (and if he is, it certainly is a very small left over position being done for fame/ego/asset gathering purposes rather than anything else), Chanos seem to be in this camp as well. They are not adding here. I suspect they know its a bad short, because...

This is why I also reject the Cooperman critique. He said something along the lines of 'the market cap to EV ratio is so low, I can count in one hand that amount of turn arounds from a situation like this'. I dont think he, and almost anyone has seen a situation like this to begin with, as I was...

I dont think an equity raise is something they are considering seriously (And I wanted it to happen at $80). If you look over the last 4 quarters, they are bringing in ~$500M in operating cashflow (GAAP, not Pearson's accounting) per quarter. Last quarter they delevered by almost $1B...

This is a very different situation from stocks where the business enter into a collapse, starts to lose money and longs keep hoping for a turn around. In that situation, there is only ONE reality (the business is in bad shape). The longs and shorts disagree about the chance of a turn around and...

VRX tanked on probe news but I still dont see a reason for me to sell my external stake (the one I bought outside PSH, after I closed out my VRX hedge. the avg is around $27 or so, 1% position, my exposure through PSH is also around 1%). The way I see the stock is there are two realities that...