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Spread was up $150 per unit today. I think that spread will play out well probably all through the fall.

This played out pretty much as expected. Actually put in a nice-3 day today. Perfect failed A up intra-day and then a confirmed A down. Sell the news event. Made an attempt at the monthly A up, ran out of steam and back below 500. This stock is going to be very messy the rest of the...

Your math is correct. And it's the only math that matters. If I invested in your fund with 50k and after one year you said to me, we had a great year, we made 1000% on margin. And then you told me my 50k account is now worth 52k, that's only a 4% return. I could care less about return on...

I went through the math before. The most logical way to deduce your equity value is to solve backwards from your daily risk. I think it's pretty standard to use a 2% daily risk allowance give or take and this is how TST came up with the account values. So based on 2% daily risk, that would be...

Two NQ per each ES.

A better idea though I think is to spread the NQ long against the ES short. Nasdaq made fresh 10 year highs today and most likely will confirm a monthly A up tomorrow. I suspect the ES will continue to underperform against the NQ.

Monthly A up in the spoos right here at 1670. If one really wants to short this market, this is the level.

X confirmed a monthly A up today. Up another 3.5%. The weekly A up is 19.66 (today's high was 19.62). We have 3 weeks till end of QTR and the QTR A up target is within reach.

Like a true artist, I carefully craft them by hand. :) And yes, it's a lot of work. But that is why they are so effective because they are not some formulaic output that is easily attainable. Trust me, the labor is worth it. I could not trade without the number lines.

Every option position is directional. Either by price or by vol. Sorry kids, to play this game, you gotta predict something. It's like sitting down at a card table and saying you don't like to gamble. LOL.

The puts are always bid up, they are insurance. The higher the stock goes, the steeper the skew. Now if you buy DITM puts, that's a different story. They are priced much more favorably then the OTM puts, so if you trade those, you'll probably be better off.

Volatility is relative. So a high VIX means nothing in a vacuum. For example, when the VIX is high, stocks tend to move more to the upside then when the VIX is low. So what you want to ask yourself, not is the VIX high, but is the VIX high relative to the current realized vol in the actual...

Regarding AAPL, so there is a lot to say here. I got long AAPL a month ago around 460 when it confirmed on my 30 day. Usually I avoid stocks like AAPL (highly watched) but this is the first time in a year it confirmed! And it was the first time in a year it made a QTR A up (the rarity...

I will take the other side of this trade. I think puts are much tougher to trade on the long side then calls provided there is a put skew and there usually is. OTM puts are almost always overvalued broadly speaking because they are bought for "protection" where as calls are usually bought for...

The broad market went up just 1%, US Steel went up 5%. LOL. If it keeps that ratio up I'll be more then happy. And I'm not asking for accolades. Just pointing out that X is "acting" well. And it has been "acting" well for weeks now. I have tons of data on X. I would not have pointed the...

This comment is so beyond absurd. These are the comments people make who do NOT trade for a living. Talking about making 100% a year like they are cutting their lawn. Nobody is making 100% a year. This is typical ET talk. Look, if any of these guys "could" make 100% a year they would not be...

We use to have a phrase in my office whenever we had a monster ACD trade: "It's not me, it's ACD!" All these trades are right out of the ACD playbook. I would love to profess having supernatural powers but these were all textbook trades that we discussed at length on this very thread...

And here is the Natty call. The low tick of the decade. Maverick74 Registered: Mar 2002 Posts: 17917 04-21-12 04:33 PM Quote from Maverick74: Let's look at Nat Gas. People often ask what is the best way to try to pick a bottom in Nat Gas. Well, the best way probably...

I think I can top that King. Maverick74 Registered: Mar 2002 Posts: 17916 07-28-11 08:17 PM Watch the 30 year bonds. We confirmed a monthly A up and we failed at the weekly about 4 times but then broke above today. Tomorrow is the last day of the month which means we get new...

No, OK you're not understanding. I'll try again. It's a function f(x). Slippage costs as a % of portfolio is a function of holding time. The graph has a neg slope and it looks like a demand curve from the upper left going down to the lower right. It represents the effect total slippage...