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No, I don't think there is any chance you will make money trading this stuff in a retail account. There is a lot of confusion here. The concept of gamma scalping came out of necessity not out of looking for edge. Market makers take on long premium when paper gets sold to them. They have to...

It's in the ebook. :)

http://mapleleafcapital.com/?page_id=10 These guys have some good white papers on trading vol on their website. Take a look.

No. There is a problem here and this is where most option traders fall off the train. If you want to trade "vol" you have to isolate just that variable. You cannot simply buy undervalued calls and make money. Now in this case you should sell the 15% calls and buy the 10% calls and wait...

Everything I do with ACD is a derivative. In other words, I look for second and third order effects. I never look at first order effects. And yes, it's VERY valuable.

One of the patterns that has held up well the last 5 years or so is that selloffs on bad news don't follow through. Too many shorts pile in on the bad news thinking this is their time. I've always held the contention that the best selloffs come on good news and bullish data. I think we are...

I thought we might sell off as well being that GOOG was up 10% in AH yesterday and the spoos were unched. Also the strength in Bonds has been bearish. There definitely are some conflicting signals here. Small caps are breaking down but Nasdaq breaking out. Bonds are getting bid and the...

There won't be an abnormal reaction in price to the event when it occurs. For example a stock runs up 10% a week going into earnings and then the company announces blowout earnings and the stock is barely up on the report or even lower.

RB/HO bounced 7 cents off the failed weekly A down.

Getting warm....:)

This is a solid interview. A lot of great fundamental information here about the work that is required to be successful. I've been building vol spreadsheets for close to 8 years now. Most of this data is NOT available. I was smart enough at the time to recognize how hard it was to capture...

The old Maver did it again. Created another ACD indicator. Can't believe I never came up with this one before. Shit. :)

Yup. The lecture he gave at MIT? That was VERY good.

Yup, that is another good analogy. Poker players often prepare very analytically. They know the odds and probabilities cold. They understand theory. They understand pot odds. But when the cards are dealt, they become poke players.

Here is a good analogy. I like football comparisons. So Tom Brady (suspension aside) has a very systematic approach to preparing for football. I'm sure he has a very regimented diet. A very structured offseason workout routine. I'm sure during the season he has a very set schedule about...

Yeah I think some here forget just how discretionary this methodology is. It is the furthest thing from a red light/green light system. If one is willing to put in the work, the payoffs can be huge. But there in lies the rub....work. LOL.

Yes, I think your intuition is right. Ultimately the fundamentals always win out in the end. The trades with the best follow through do align themselves with the fundamental view. I have said this for a long time that it would serve everyone on this thread whether you trade ACD or not to...

Not sure I understand this question. With a broker?

Surf, there is plenty of economic research on this and Daniel Kahneman won a Nobel Prize in Economics for his work in this area. Google "Prospect Theory".

Guys....I'm not joking about this contango in natty. LOL.