Search results

Note to ralph. you have been added to my ignore list. enjoy your stay

I was getting excited at the possibility the HKD was going to test its highs (And force the CB to print a ton of cash to hold it, fueling the bubble even more)but now it is declining. I just closed 50% of my position there at a small profit. It seems to me that the chance of reval have declined...

I would need to see a data sample larger than 2-3 years, otherwise I would be long and be totally skeptical of this being some new bull market but rather just a wave that I'm looking to dump as soon as it turns I have no problem with momentum riding. I do have a problem with people who are...

"On that note, the rate of GDP growth over the past three quarters is already lower than in the three quarters prior to 7 of the past 10 recessions, and the year-over-year growth rate is slower than it was just before 9 of them." http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc120305.htm Truth is if it...

Well, my fed futures trade kept paying off every 6 months or so(And I would renew them). I originally got the idea from Siva Joty(Incidentally) interview. He used E$ and eventually got burned but I decided it didn't make much sense and used ZQ I also got quite a bit of confidence for holding...

I would like to see the evidence that those estimates are more reliable. As far the 2nd point goes, if ES tanks 4% on monday you promise you are not selling?I see a lot of people who want to ride momentum and try to spin the 'fundamentals' in their favor to feel good about holding the position...

Couldn't agree more. I find myself questioning even Grantham and Hussman estimates(5% or so). If you add in -Margin compression -Shiller PE above 20x(And those earnings are a bit inflated due unusually good profit margins) -Multiple contraction(Secular bear) -Weak NGDP growth(Due the Fed not...

I don't put much faith in forward earnings estimates and I believe history is on my side. It sounds like to me that you are making a short-term trade and you are going to dump this market as a soon as there is a significant decline. Correct me if I'm wrong

Point is if Buffett were to IPO all those private businesses they would be valued at much higher levels

Just a clarification. BRKA $98K figure includes the book value of the non-publicly traded business as well stocks and bonds. So effectively you are paying for the stocks and bonds at market plus the private businesses at a slightly premium to book but a extremely small premium to earnings(maybe...

This could work but since it will be a long-term holding the hedge will lose money almost surely. US stocks will probably earn something like 5% over the next 5-10 years(Grantham, Hussman and some other models indicate that) so to me its better to just buy the whole thing and not hedge

Its interesting, even though US stocks have been declining in valuations they still aren't cheap by any means(Shiller PE, Hussman estimates, and discount model I posted a while back). If the secular theme keeps playing either the economy will have to grow a lot(Unlikely unless the Fed adopts...

I wrote book value in the post above but I meant price to book http://www.vectorgrader.com/indicators/price-book US stocks as a whole have been declining in valuations. Both in PE and PBs. This matches up well with my theme that stocks are in a secular bear and commodities in a secular...

Sounds like some kind of scam. Baron needs to delete this

Not sure. All major insurers had this type of decline. Saw an analyst the other day on CNBC saying that even though BRK book value was low, compared to the S&P500 it was still at the same level as many years ago(in terms of discount). So it seems a valuation compression due secular dynamics. But...

BRK has $98K in investments(Mainly stocks) and generates about $8K a year in pre-tax income from the business portfolio(Non-stocks). The stock trades at $117K, so essentially you get Buffett stock and bond portfolio at market prices plus his business portfolio for a bit over 2times pre-tax...

Gross has beat the market by 100bps or more over the last 2-3 decades

I will soon start to use the TRXT ETF. Hurts buying power though

Would you deny that reading about other traders experiences, successes, failures can help someone identify similar situations, profit, avoid disasters or repeat mistakes?

Thinking about A New Earth and what Tolle calls 'the ego' I thought how knowledge and practice to not fall for it can create a market edge for a individual trader My cousin works in the Fixed Income and FX desk at HSBC Brazil. He majored in engineering and even studied engineering in France...