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http://business.financialpost.com/investing/investing-pro/david-rosenberg-the-buy-and-hold-era-is-over-and-you-can-thank-janet-yellen-for-that Rosenberg also thinks this market will be somewhat contained in a range Its probably time to start to get a more defensive posture. I have a hard time...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-30/brazil-posts-largest-budget-deficit-ever-rousseff-cries-coup-olympic-ad-sales-top-1- Brazil fiscal situation getting worse. The amount of primary deficit reversal that needs to be done now is very large. An austerity package that would take a -2% primary...

Looks like his style wasn't robust enough, thats why I think the combination between Leitner and O'Shea is what makes sense. Judging by O'shea 2013/2014 returns, it looks like he didn't had enough of these passive investments that make you money most years and clients got pissed (as people...

I still got the same hedge I had from 70-80s. its small now as shorts get smaller as it goes down. I added to PSH at a good discount to NAV so I already saw that are protective and didn't see a need to hedge If VRX goes to $0 I lose around 1.2% or so in theory but maybe I won't lose anything if...

I think right now I got 25% in stocks, 9% in gold and the rest in bonds/cash

Only actual news is that they are going after the other covenants (interest coverage and others) and that they stood behind the 10-K delivery guidance. I'm still in the same camp, while Hempton deserves props for being right about Philidor and some other issues ultimately this will come down to...

But 2008/2009 was tough, very few people were able to make money being a bear during the down move and then make it again being a bull after the reversal. I got a bit lucky that the Fed funds futures market was so inneficient back then and I was able to bank on that even though I was a bear (one...

Right now valuations are on the high side, sentiment is bullish/neutral and people have been caring/changing their minds about some risk factors (central bank policy, EM economies, China, etc) so I own some stocks but I'm not in love with asset class. I want to own plenty of dry power in...

Of course, the model has to take into account valuation too. Its valuation+sentiment+other factors that can help to determine how much in stocks/bonds its interesting to own. 2009 was just an unbelieable combination of factors that was telling one to buy, when price action joined that, then it...

This is partially why even though I own some stocks, I would never be fully invested or even go above 50%. My position sizing model tells me to be big when sentiment is terrible, now its actually good and markets have been up for years so its not the time to 'invest and get rich' like Buffett says

I put some shorts in too large a size in March and April that I should never have (or if I did, I should have done in small size, because I was going in the direction of big extreme in negative sentiment) Same thing can be applied to cutting back bullish positions in big positive sentiment markets

That was my mistake in 2009. That and a position sizing model adjustment that I realize one has to make (sizing your positions in relation to sentiment, never be big in the direction of the sentiment)

Here is a relevant quote from O'shea that influenced my thinking

I like when that stuff gets posted on ZH, not because I think their forecasts are great but because they usually compile a lot of macro data in just one file so you can get an idea of the big picture. Also, I'd suggest you take a look at the Dalio 30 min video where he talks about the economic...

There is also a bunch of brazilian econ sites that I visit because most of my macro these days is done by "force". I'm forced to be involved in brazil forecasting because my income is in USD and a good portion of my costs are in BRL. I tend to have to have an opinion on the exchange rate to...

Here are some sites that I vist. Now keep in mind that I'm not very active in the macro game so I read a lot less than I used. You probably want to add the WSJ and the economist to thelist http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=spx&insttype=&freq=&show=...

Yes, I'm a fan of NGDP. This is mostly due to beliefs I have about the macroeconomy, such as -corporate profits (and at some point, stock prices) tend to follow NGDP -NGDP is a better indicator of monetary policy than interest rates (japan had low interest rates in the 90's but that was not an...

For position sizing, I like the Schwager/Hite 1% rule. You can by more scientific about and come up with more mathematically sound % numbers but for most people that is enough. However if they are not solid proven profitable traders, then they should be risking a lot less than 1%. For risk...

For example, I believe people who are followers of the Austrian School of Economics tends to be too afraid of high inflation and hyperinflation in the US. I believe that the theory they use to base that belief is not correct but if you give me 300-1 that over the next 10 years the US will have...