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The theory behind going 100% in stocks when going in a sabbatical is that because I'm taking less risk in the active trading side, I can take more risk in the investing side But on the other hand, as an active trader I'm not exposed to have a big drawdown when people pull back from drinking the...

A temptation that I have is to load up 100% in cheap equities like that and take a year or two off from active trading. In the one hand I view this bull market as somewhat shaky as central banks have compressed risk premiums all around but that seems unsustainable and likely to end up in a nasty...

Not unthinkable that BRKB could trade bellow the buyback price for a while, maybe even a month or two but its A LOT easier for the S&P to drop 8% and keep dropping than for BRKB to do that. Every newspaper out there will be talking about how Buffett is buying back its own shares, a lot of buying...

BRK earnings out, new buyback level now is ~$132 for the B shares. Stock is at around $143. 8% downside and who knows the upside, prob 30-50% Cheap and much better risk reward relative to the S&P500

I originally got the idea for longing Greek stocks from Steve Sjuggerud Here is him pitching the trade http://www.dailywealth.com/preview/3393?print=1 My thesis is as little more broader than that though but I like the optionality of that market. They are very sensitive to the rest of Europe...

the problem are the fakeout bars, there will be a period where no one knows shit but they will speculate based on headlines. you can short and then see ES rip your face in a rally

Actually, he bought 1.7M total with most being right before the close High River Limited Partnership 11/03/2016 366,480.00 54.70 Icahn Partners LP 11/03/2016 860,076.00 54.70 Icahn Partners Master Fund LP 11/03/2016 605,846.00 54.70 I guess he was too busy yesterday

And I love how he did nothing yesterday, just to build the notion that he gave up on it, attract shorts and then squeeze them today into the close. The type of stuff I see on the OTC penny stock world daily

Icahn waited till the close today to slam 600K worth of HLF buys and tape paint it green " Icahn Partners Master Fund LP 11/03/2016 605,846.00 54.70" The level of stock manipulation is just reaching unreal levels

I would imagine the algos will hammer ES very quickly (up or down), a lot faster than a unexpected UK vote. They will be all over the news feeds for exit polls and things like that. I bet will be a nightmare to delta hedge through that

What happens to your P&L if Trump is elected and ES opens at 1980?

And even if that's all wrong, Fed will be taking hikes off the table and that will support risk assets If Trump tried to put a hawk as Chairman, I dont think that will be a big deal either because Yellen's term will only be due in early 2018, so the first year will have that cushion Plus I...

So my theory for the Trump scare out is this: -A lot of other presidents (like Bill Clinton, Bush 2 maybe Nixon) were probably just as crazy/unstable as Trump but they kept their mouths shut a lot of the time. Because Trump is a populist and politically incorrect, he will say things people are...

If you think about it, the most dangerous types of populists, are the ones that made a living off government. The ones who openly defend socialism or socialist policies, whose background doesnt involve being involved with markets and market discipline. That's the Bernie Sanders types (and Lula)...

Point is, as with Lula in 2003, you cant listen to what a populist says, otherwise you will do dumb shit. They say things they will never do Trump is a populist, yet, all people do, is to listen what he says

In Brazil in 2003, Lula was elected saying all kinds of crazy shit (like 'lets default on the external debt'), markets dived. Yet, when he got into office, his first term was actually decent. He had some good advisors who threw some sense into his policies. On his second term he went down a...

If Trump wins, no doubt, risk assets will be shredded. But I actually think it will be a good buying opportunity. Bill Clinton has been shown to be a liar, cheater, corrupt (with the now info on Mark Richie) and who knows what else. Yet, his presidency was ok. Trump will be advised by all kinds...

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They guided $8b in asset sales, if they close this, then pretty much they will out do that in one shot. And they will got a lot of non-core to sell. I bet they wont even need to sell them anymore. The balance sheet will be very strong now. At any point in the future, if there is a hope trend...

I mean, they will sell almost double the market cap (from the open) in one shot and build a very strong balance sheet to absorb debt, legal costs and pretty much anything that will come out. A real short thesis starts at a much higher level, maybe $35-$40. here, only idiots are short