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As a trader/investor one has to be careful when dealing with politics, people get too emotional over it. As a result, they can make some giant mistakes. Especially now when US politics are driving everything. Bonds are doing what they have not done in years, if not decades. A lot of folks are...

Trump's trade policy is actually pretty smart. Economists will tell you that free trade is good and all countries should do it. But what they dont tell you is how do you achieve that after decades of trade deals/rounds. The low hanging fruit is gone. The only way global trade can expand a lot...

EWZ is mostly banks, consumer defensive/discretionary and some commodity stocks. So I believe I'm safe there. Banks dont rely on gov import protection and consumer stocks as a whole can benefit as people save money on imports. And commodities seem to like his fiscal ambitions

But the key here is, if there is a big Trump dip down the line (and I have no idea when that is), its a buying opportunity

If you look at FATCA, the US was able to convince the whole planet to join in that madness simply because other countries couldn't afford not having access to US investment, the USD payment system, etc. This was a situation where the US government acted tough and stood ground, as a result, they...

So the EM stocks that should crash, are the ones that depend on gov trade protection to exist and grow. The other ones should actually trade up because reduced protectionism, means that the consumer in those EM countries will have more money to spend by saving cash with low cost imports. That...

This is a deeper layer that a lot of people miss. They get too emotional about things he did in the past, things he said, values he holds, etc. As a result, they ONLY interpret what he says on the surface and they miss out on that deeper layer.

So I was thinking about this Trump trade policy. I'm starting to think it makes a lot of sense, it could lead to even better global trade Here's why: What Trump seems to be saying is that when the US sits down to negotiate a trade deal, it gives more than it receives. So for example, in most...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-30/steven-mnuchin-roils-bond-markets-suggestion-100-year-treasury-issuance Commerce Sec "Everybody talks about tariffs as the first thing. Tarrifs are the last thing"

Ackman is up 17.5% since his lows this year

Stocks opened at all-time highs yesterday and then sold off the whole day. Sell-off continues today I didnt like this Trump Carrier Corp jobs thing. Especially, the speech he did in Indiana today. He sounded too protectionist. The market didnt seem to like it either. Nasdaq is tanking and a lot...

I probably should have used BRKB instead of SPY. Since Trump, the market has been screaming that this thing will benefit big time. Today, its up another 2 bucks, with SPY down

Potential trade: play the bounce on that TLT. Its really starting to get out of hand. I will keep in eye during that day. Would be great to have a news catalyst of some kind

This market has been straight down since I bought. I'm exiting SPY here on the loss of the low of the day. Tiny loss. Might reenter in the future on better price action

The Ackman GSE plan

Essentially, the new UST secretary has adopted the basis of the Ackman plan for the GSEs

The statements from the new UST sec this morning are very strong Effectively he is saying the GSEs will NOT be wound down (which some in Congress want), that they will be safe and wont need another bailout (that is, they will be allowed to build up capital) and the government will not...

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook/beige-book-faqs.htm#4 New Beige book now has a category for Prices and Wages for all Districts "In addition, the District reports will have greater overlap in the specific information provided about overall economic activity, employment...

Market closed kinda weak, maybe that $220 level is too close. Will try to give some room, thats why I hate to chase something higher and I keep waiting for a dip to get in. It makes all the decisions a lot easier because you tend to get tested less. But at the same time, waiting for a dip can...

8% position so far, but I might increase it to 12%-15%