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VRX IV in the options is very high, analysts have thrown the towel, even the bulls. The media and commentators are all bearish on it. Is there any more obvious trade than 'shorting VRX for the bk!'? This is like the guy buying dollars in a hyperinflation after he reads on the newspaper that...

One of my position sizing rules is: "the more you are going WITH sentiment, the smaller your position should be. And the more you are going against it, the bigger you CAN be". Whether the trader does or not its up to him. But its an idea based on that principle. I came up with that rule in 2009...

Why does this happen? Theory would say its because expectations are formed in the price and sometimes these adjustments overshoot due emotions or excessive pessimism, miscalculations or just plain old risk aversion etc. But the interesting thing is that it seems to happen all over the world. I...

Hard currencies seem to trade at a permanent level of overvaluation in these economies, as a form of an insurance policy to the holder. When the bad case scenarios dont play out, the value of the insurance collapses. If Venezuela does issue 500 and 1000 bolivar notes, its going to make...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-15/bizarre-reason-why-worlds-worst-currency-just-soared-60 The Bolivar is soaring. The obvious trade (sitting in USD notes) didnt work out for speculators

Ghost of Cutten was the type of trader that used to nail these type of moves back in the day. I should try to pay attention to these more often. You can really scale up your trading once you master these

I suppose Gold did one of those after Trump got elected. During the night it soared, then the next day it went down. The day after that, it really went down. That was the signial. If gold couldnt rally on Trump, then it couldnt rally on anything. I ligthened up on it on that signal but I wish I...

A strong signal example, from a different market: IF yesterday treasuries got beaten initially by the Fed but then proceeded to reverse and make a new high on the day. This is the type of reversal signal usually means something big is about to happen. Its the classic Market Wizards market tone...

So the Fed comes out and put another rate hike for 2017. And Yellen sounded tough on fiscal policy, suggesting it wasnt welcomed. People freaked out and sold stocks. Well, today all the losses are reversed and the Dow is flirting with 20k. Once again, the default answer (buy or keep holding your...

A risk to this trade is that KHC doesnt seem to have much cash. About $4B, Buffett is rumored to help the financing but still its likely it will be a mostly stock with only limited cash deal. MDLZ market cap is over $60B. The stock deals depend on what the market thinks about the deal, sometimes...

MDLZ tried to buyout HSY so they would become very big and make it hard for them to get bought themselves. These people know they will lose their jobs if 3G acquires them, they are desperate. I believe that is why some folks came out to deny any talks so quick. Of course they are not in talks...

lol, so I can choose any country? and PWC is an expert in all countries on earth? you are a true piece of work my friend

You are not giving me shit because you are just a random loon looking around for reasons to pacify your paranoia

Look at what you said a few months ago "My logic is that even if I'm just a tourist, I'd still be making significant income with forex trading while I'm in their country thus it may be considered domestic income and it would become declarable and taxable as well. I mean those positions which I...

And I also asked my bank (Not HSBC or any of the global banks) if they still opened accounts for non-US folks. They said they did. This was this year btw dw31583 is a paranoid loon, for him almost nothing can be done. I mean, this is the guy that goes around thinking people on tourists visas...

No I opened WAY after 2001. You dont know what I'm talking about you? Check my posting history in this thread. You conviniently forgot, of course. As far as KPMG, given the amount of nonsense of said about Brazil, I feel pretty good about these one stop shop firms (or whoever is advising you)...

what lead/lag? this thing is arbed by bots instantly. As far as volume goes, I have never been a situation where I thought 'gez, I want to clean up the book for several levels but I'm not sure the liquidity is there'. For 99% of daytraders, one level of SPY is enough to max out their intended...

I'm a non US-resident. I have never set foot in the US, in fact, my turist Visa application was denied in the past. Yet, I have a US bank account. Careful listening to what dw31583 says. He is a paranoid loon who says 'go to KPMG for advice' yet when I confronted him with advice given directly...

I prefer SPY over ES, why? SPY has a 1 cent spread, whereas ES trades in .25 ticks. Thats equivalent to 2.5 cents of SPY, overtime that extra spread adds up. Intraday 4-1 leverage is plenty. Plus its a lot easier to scale in and out with SPY given that you can buy/sell as little as 1 share. With...

If the buyout does happen, I suspect the premium will be around 30%. Its not so small (like 20%) that it encourages shareholders to say no and try to bank more from MDLZ 2018 cost cutting plans but it is big enough to entice them to say yes. They seem to be afraid of Trump, Trump made some...