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Then who buys Treasuries at the next auction?

A close up from the open, but down from the previous close. EG, a rally from a gap-down open that doesn't get back to the previous session's close.

Not much, IMO. There is a bunch of dollar-hoarding going on as a hell of a lot of people/institutions out there are bag-holding USD-denominated debt. Not quite the same as a "flight to quality"...

Last 8 presidential years were an era of free credit for everyone, massive deficit spending, and now, finally, nationalization of the banks. The next guy - whichever party wins - is gonna have a hell of a time out-socializing the current President.

China holds approximately $3T in agency debt and somewhere near $1T in Treasuries. US tax receipts for 2008 arearound $2.5T while outlays are ~$3T. So no - it can't be paid "anytime they want" without inflicting a fair bit of fiscal pain on the US domestic economy.

IMO that's the wrong way to look at it. Neither side is a "chump", they're joined at the hip by opposite sides of the same coin. With the close ties in export and the pegged currency, China is in practical terms the 51st state. We imported consumer goods and exported jobs and inflation...

We'll start finding out Monday - UK announcing equity stakes and probably interbank guarantees Monday 7AM London time. Germany floating a draft today and they expect to finalize it tomorrow (Sunday). Should be a damn interesting week.

Treasury this morning says they'll have a plan within "days" to nationalize...errrr...take equity stakes in financial institutions. That plus a guarantee of interbank loans of less than 90 day duration would probably be enough for a 10-20% gap up in something like XLF. Volatility cuts both...

The time to buy "fat tail" exposure is when volatility is LOW, not when it is SKY HIGH.

So the question to be asked is - if/when long rates go up signficantly - who will eat all the losses on all those fixed-rate long term mortgages? Hint: grab a mirror.

"Bear markets don't end until the last bear is carried out on a stretcher." Just sayin'...

While I appreciate his concerns and share many of them to a considerable extent, IMO he is wrong about hyperinflation. For all the jokes made, the US is nothing like Argentina - the quantities of debt held externally are mind booglingly large - any attempt to hyperinflate out of this mess will...

First dump I ever saw was '87. VIX didn't officially exist back then, but there were options, and backing the calculations out gives a triple-digit number somewhere between 120 and 150. A bad, bad day, by any measure.

...that you'd be getting a lot further along in life if you spent a lot less time talking and a lot more time listening.

iPhone revs are spread evenly over 8 quarters (2 years). So nearly half the revenue from the *first* iPhone release has yet to find its way onto the books.

AAPL - under $90 it is trading for effectively 2x cash - not 2x book, but 2x cash - as there is a huge amount of deferred rev just waiting to fall onto the books. To put AAPL's cash horde in perspective, they could have done the the Buffet/Goldman deal four times over and still had a...

The helicopters have already come and gone. http://www.nuclearphynance.com/User%20Files/98/New%20Image.JPG

Use of the past tense is completely inappropriate for the topic under discussion.

For the sake of clarity, is it your position that the $700B blank check intervention the administration just went down on its knees begging for is consistent with allowing markets to just "work it out"?

AAPL has an impressive cash hoarde. IMO it is a reasonable value here, and I'm taking some. Unlikely it will ever get back to the $200 glory days, but a 60% pop from here is certainly doable - for someone with patience, anyway.