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  1. tfp

    CL Journal

    I'd say it was indeed a very nice bottom: And today's setups did not disappoint:
  2. tfp

    Crude is screwed, man.

    Today served up another example - 2 trades. Trade #1 brewed from London lows and hit both likely as well as aggressive targets. Trade #2 hit its likely target and would have required holding through API inventory report to hit its aggressive target (no thanks, not necessary): ES also obliged...
  3. tfp

    Crude is screwed, man.

    Drawing fibs this way uses them as attempts at S/R levels or Pivots. Maybe they respect a fib line and maybe they don't - I was never able to rely on predictive odds using this method, but perhaps other traders have. I use fibs as a quick volatility range expansion calculator based on specific...
  4. tfp

    Crude is screwed, man.

    The fibs are definitely drawn unconventionally. No predictions, only probabilities with range expansion. The fibs are drawn as an easy way to approximate volatility range expansion. Today in CL - choppy Monday, but smalls shorts from session highs are still there. Crazy spike right at 08:00...
  5. tfp

    Crude is screwed, man.

    3 trades on a tricky EIA crude news report. London session had a nice long 30-60 ticks. Typically stay flat prior to EIA news. Well placed entry stops or quick fingers might have caught 30-50 tick elevator up. Trade #3 after retail stops were cleared offered 20-30 ticks back down to balancing...
  6. tfp

    Crude is screwed, man.

    Another LOL - if there are setups that give 15-30 ticks on CL with 80% probabilities and great risk:return profile, then ??? Many days offer 30-50 tick setups. Some more, some less. This is not an exercise in holding as long as possible, this is a 'Moneyball' strategy in consistently getting...
  7. tfp

    Crude is screwed, man.

    LOL - there is no right or wrong way to draw fibs, however, they are an amazing tool. There is no 100% anchor point that is off (or on for that matter). You are correct - the fibs are not drawn like others may draw them. The fibs are not ignorant - they are very deliberate and intentional...
  8. tfp

    CL Journal

    Hats off to anyone willing to keep a journal, and openly sharing/reflecting on winners, losers. Everyone has their individual reasons to share, reflect, or not. The best part is... if you think you can do better - then you are welcome to do so (or at least try). If you don't buy any of the...
  9. tfp

    Crude is screwed, man.

    They may be trying to goose this with 'press releases', but the tape reveals today was a great day for shorts - run 'em up, spit 'em out, and reverse the thrusters. We frequently find that by the time something is published, someone or something is loading up on the other side - we won't name...
  10. tfp

    Crude is screwed, man.

    Slow Friday as she recoils prior to Baker Hughes Rig Count - only 2 trades today. Agreeing with @Buy1Sell2 that 4775s are an inflection point: Have a great weekend to all!
  11. tfp

    CL Journal

    Slow Friday as she recoils prior to Baker Hughes Rig Count - only 2 trades today. Agreeing with @Buy1Sell2 that 4775s are an inflection point: Have a great weekend to all!
  12. tfp

    Crude is screwed, man.

    EIA - EAI - Oh! Nice EIA crude inventory price action. 2 trades today, first one was hard as blazes to hold through news, but that's what trailing stops are for. Second trade - fade from new relative highs offered 20-40 ticks.
  13. tfp

    Crude is screwed, man.

    When GS openly shares their trading thesis, it's often a great time to take the other side ;)
  14. tfp

    CL Journal

    EIA - EAI - Oh! Nice EAI crude inventory price action. 2 trades today, first one was hard as blazes to hold through news, but that's what trailing stops are for. Second trade - fade from new relative highs offered 20-40 ticks.
  15. tfp

    CL Journal

    Slow day - only 2 trades:
  16. tfp

    CL Journal

    LOL - MACD, ZLACD, SHLACD, TA, EMA, EMU, EMEA - whatever works for those who know how to read the tape, order flow, and manage risk. Long, short, it don't matter. Just trade it. There were 3 trades today - all hit their volatility range based targets - tomorrow is another day: France has a...
  17. tfp

    Never confuse price with value...

    Never confuse price with value...
  18. tfp

    Crude is screwed, man.

    Lol - light, sweet, and always crude - there is no point in forecasting, just trade it! She goes up, she goes down, and feasts on the stops of weak holders - other than that, there is no directional bias or trading strategy ;)
  19. tfp

    CL Journal

    Thanks - great day for crude - have a good weekend!
  20. tfp

    CL Journal

    Mav- that's one heck of an uptrend indeed ;) I'm new to Elite - how do you get a nice chart like that embedded in your post? Sorry for the dumb question - and thanks.
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