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  1. bone

    Intraday Mean Reversion Return Expectations

    Dead nuts fucking on 100 percent. Buying bids, selling offers, and fading moves is a tough way to go. I'm sure that there are traders who do it successfully, but they are 1 %' ers that's for sure. Best possibility would be for some sort of super high positive correlation arbitrage - like...
  2. bone

    Letting Your Winners Run

    Was your stop-loss level you had set for these trades similar or less than the magnitude of the actual profit you took at the time of trade exit ? In terms of my client work, we set our profit targets and stop-loss levels according to a simple rule at the time of trade entry, and then I give my...
  3. bone

    SpreadProfessor Clients - Thanks !

    All margins are derived directly from daily SCANS - not my words, it's the same for every exchange. When vol changes, margins change accordingly. And the daily SCAN results likewise are the only variable that changes the SPAN performance bond / margins for portfolios and spread combinations...
  4. bone

    But what about copper ?

    Well, if we are truly and legitimately below production costs - then both commercial producers and users will be buying forwards in here...
  5. bone

    Ag trade ideas

    Since fuel costs are such a big part of farming production, no doubt it will help - but you have to also suspect that the corn/ethanol crush will be the sharper side of that double-edged sword. Question is, will more farmers increase Soybean acreage next season ? It almost seems like...
  6. bone

    SpreadProfessor Clients - Thanks !

    Here is the link for the daily Margin Scanning ( the term used by ICE Clear Europe ): https://www.theice.com/clear-europe/risk-management#margin-liffe Here is the link to the exchange-published procedure for using the information listed in the designated columns within the daily Margin Scan...
  7. bone

    SpreadProfessor Clients - Thanks !

    TBricks has some phenomenal spread trading tools. Which is probably why ORC bought 100% of the company this week. http://www.tbricks.com/products/apps#spreader
  8. bone

    A Wheat and a Sugar Spread

    Fundamentals were super important to me when I was a commercial energy trader in the '90's. But, it's just not practical in terms of client work - I get 6E scalpers, options spreaders, ex pit traders for clients - their trading backgrounds can run the spectrum. And for that matter, I'm not...
  9. bone

    SpreadProfessor Clients - Thanks !

    Here's a Sugar Butterfly that is still working from the short side.
  10. bone

    A Wheat and a Sugar Spread

    Here's a Wheat Condor that was taken from the long side; hit the profit target, and then immediately failed off. Here's a Sugar Butterfly that is still working from the short side.
  11. bone

    SpreadProfessor Clients - Thanks !

    Here's a Wheat Condor that was taken from the long side; hit the profit target, and then immediately failed off.
  12. bone

    But what about copper ?

    Here's a Euribor butterfly that sets up very well on the long side for a good swing trade. Initial overnight margin should be between $500 - $800 for a 1-2-1. The scan margins have really been changing around as of late.
  13. bone

    Euribor Butterfly

    Here's a Euribor butterfly that sets up very well on the long side for a good swing trade. Initial overnight margin should be between $500 - $800 for a 1-2-1. The scan margins have really been changing around as of late.
  14. bone

    SpreadProfessor Clients - Thanks !

    Here's a Euribor butterfly that sets up very well on the long side for a good swing trade. Initial overnight margin should be between $500-$800 for a 1-2-1. The scan margins have really been changing around as of late.
  15. bone

    Technical analysis :useless junk science

    I am a very firm believer in Occam's Razor.
  16. bone

    Technical analysis :useless junk science

    1. Consistency through various market cycles is all that really matters. If that comes through a special twist you put on the MACD study or by simply staring with laser-sharp focus at a vertical price ladder all day long watching order flow - it matters not. $$$ matter. 2. I've taken on well...
  17. bone

    SpreadProfessor Clients - Thanks !

    I think you could certainly make the case that from a relative value standpoint, TSLA is indeed weakening against very high ( > 96 % ) positive statistical 2-year on-the-run correlators like Vanguard Mid-Cap Growth ETF and the Rydex S&P Equal Weight Technology ETF. The tricky part with respect...
  18. bone

    Tesla : BEAR in my opinion, what is the bullish case?

    I think you could certainly make the case that from a relative value standpoint, TSLA is indeed weakening against very high ( > 96 % ) positive statistical 2-year on-the-run correlators like Vanguard Mid-Cap Growth ETF and the Rydex S&P Equal Weight Technology ETF.
  19. bone

    Tesla : BEAR in my opinion, what is the bullish case?

    The Tesla Model S with the P85D package is just the shit. Love it. And Rolls-Royce just had their best year ever in 2014.
  20. bone

    Tesla : BEAR in my opinion, what is the bullish case?

    The original short was strictly my brother's idea; I was just offering suggestions to his query about position management. My mind is strictly built to think in terms of relative value and spread relationships - directional bets on singular flat price instruments are not my forte.
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