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Lots of vendors out there sell complex systems where they have a possible adjustment for all kinds of different market movements. They'll typically present risk graphs before and after for each adjustment in isolation, and they all look exquisite. I've lots of backtesting over the years and...

I totally agree. And to take it one step further, I'd say this is the sort of thing you should decide before entering the trade in the first place. As someone once said, "prepare for war in times of peace."

Tremendous line right there.

I know little about this, but if you have trading experience then what about starting your own IA or CTA?

In my experience, it's incredibly difficult to find other people who are serious about attending trading Meetups and willing to commit time (and or some money to cover expenses). It's also hard to find other serious traders willing to commit time on a regular basis for collaboration. I think...

In my world that's just semantics, but I won't argue with you.

While not directly tradeable, I think they can provide useful information. /VX converges to spot VIX at expiration and those futures are tradeable.

I was referring to things like failing to account for transaction fees, data mining, future leaks, overfitting, and small sample sizes.

I think you should expect degradation over time, but that doesn't mean the system can't make money. If you find that backtested, profitable strategies regularly fail to make money in live trading, then I would suspect your process. One thing I have seen clearly over the years is that...

In another response, you said: "this is why an individual can make 25 to 30% return selling premium because they are not blindly selling at a fixed strike OTM regularly but they adapt and adjust based on how they read the market. " Why do you think it's easy to beat the mechanical benchmarks...

Very interesting thread! I agree it would have caused a drawdown... and the drawdown would probably have been much larger than the index itself since you're trading volatile stocks with high IV. It's tough to recover from a 20-30% drawdown... it would be devastating to recover from a 60-70%...

Great graphic... where did you get that from, Ironchef?

Stocks (SEC), options (SEC and CFTC), and futures (CFTC) are regulated. Is forex?

Sounds like their general suggestion is to find a number of decent strategies in noncorrelated markets such that when traded together, a synergistic improvement in RAR results. What do you disagree with, exactly? One thing that comes to my mind is correlation approaching 1 in severe market...

Is there a way to ignore a thread such that when new items are posted in that thread, it doesn't show up in bold (or at all) on my screen? I just don't care to ever read it. Thanks!

I'm not implying anything about trend trading, but didn't Livermore end up committing suicide?

I've seen Cottle give a handful of free marketing webinars and when he speaks he sounds just like a lot of others out there who give free marketing webinars to sell trader education, mentoring, etc. Was Cottle successful as a MM or floor trader? I don't know. I never saw his tax returns or...

Does anyone know what happened to Weissman Signals, Inc. (Richard Weissman)?

I think a lot of "complex hedged trades" are deceptive. People love to place "Band Aids" all over the place to make an ugly risk graph look better. In many cases, it's just about kicking the risk down the road (i.e. into a different expiration). None of these are guarantees, some are...

This is possibly why I was advised not to sign. I still feel this is what margin rates are all about. If they agreed to stress PM at 10% then that's the risk they're willing to accept. Too much? Increase my rate and see if I'm content to stay (because I will likely shop around). Having me...