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  1. NoDoji

    Why do 5% of Traders Win?

    I offer no special "services", but I've offered informal "mentoring/coaching" in how to trade using price action to around 20 ET members and I have no reason to do this for income because first of all I don't offer any specialized trading methodology (like some of the ET sponsors who do charge...
  2. NoDoji

    Technical Trading Setups Journal

    E, I don't have time to post charts, but look at CL today between 11:25 and 12:20 EST. You have what appears will be a pullback straight to the 20EMA on the 5-min when the 11:25 bar low breaks, but there's still some gas in the tank to the upside. Buying a break of the 11:30 bar high is a no-go...
  3. NoDoji

    2012: The Battle for Survival

    Day trading FIRE or any stock that's "in play" isn't about long or short, it's about risk management. FIRE opened with a huge gap into all-new-high territory. That means no one's in pain except shorts (and there were a helluva lot of them because the short interest going into earnings was...
  4. NoDoji

    Technical Trading Setups Journal

    Steve, the reason I initially got him started on the automation project was because I'd developed the first draft of my written trading plan and I failed miserably to trade all the setups, which meant my daily result was significantly less than my "what if I'd simply traded every setup and...
  5. NoDoji

    Technical Trading Setups Journal

    I use the next S/R level as a zone to possibly take profit. The next S/R level to be tested could be a trend line (for counter-trend scalps) or a parallel channel line (for the next leg in the direction of an established trend) or the previous S/R level or the 20 EMA. I sometimes place a...
  6. NoDoji

    Technical Trading Setups Journal

    I realized that I need to elaborate a bit on this. If price is pulling back to the 1-min 20 EMA in a well-defined uptrend on the 5-min chart and a break of the previous 5-min bar takes price right into the 1-min 20 EMA, this is a likely bear trap setup on the 5-min and you can still trail the...
  7. NoDoji

    Technical Trading Setups Journal

    E, you got some great feedback on this already! Here's my take: 1. Ditch the Keltners. During wide ranges, Keltners can be useful on a 5-min chart, but as Xpurt said, don't use them to anticipate anything, neither entries nor profit-taking exits. I cut so many profits short using Keltners (on...
  8. NoDoji

    Why do 5% of Traders Win?

    I've never traded Forex, but I traded 6E (euro futures) and it trades very much like CL. I understand what you mean about not wanting to keep buying higher and instead waiting for a confirmed short. My progression as a trader followed a similar route. First I was the counter-trend...
  9. NoDoji

    Why do 5% of Traders Win?

    Yes, the better entry was 109.26, but I overthought that trade and ended up getting in rather late, when the weak breakout of the previous HOD @ 109.47 sparked no selling pressure whatsoever. Price just hung around there in the .40's and .50's and I held my nose and clicked "buy" because, to...
  10. NoDoji

    Why do 5% of Traders Win?

    Oh I have no problem with several potential shorting opportunities during the run up; I just happened not to trade them, choosing to trade only to the long side until that final failed breakout near the pit close (my charts are two hours behind EST, by the way). I do take counter-trend short...
  11. NoDoji

    CL Redux

    The break of 100.55 on 2/13 was confirmed channel breakout to the long side, with price closing solidly above the 20-day EMA. Swing traders are long. Counter-trend "faders" using the daily chart have no short signal yet (price needs to travel to a deep upper channel level which appears to be...
  12. NoDoji

    Why do 5% of Traders Win?

    When a strong run breaches a key level by just a few ticks and you see some real size hit DOM as the large collection of counter-trend traders' stops trigger into market buy orders (or sell orders in a down trending move), providing a lot of liquidity to sell into, a quick CT scalper can...
  13. NoDoji

    Why do 5% of Traders Win?

    See the attachment to understand why only 5% of traders win. The market rewards what is difficult. Trend-following programs dominate and they don't give up easily. The easy money is in the direction of a strong trend. Trying to pick tops and bottoms is best left to the "professionals".
  14. NoDoji

    Why do 5% of Traders Win?

    Who are the morons buying this POS???
  15. NoDoji

    Why do 5% of Traders Win?

    I’m not falling for this shake out of the weak hands. They’re just running it up to hunt all the stops…
  16. NoDoji

    Why do 5% of Traders Win?

    Oil’s gone up 8 days in a row, up 9.00 in 8 days! It's nothing but a big f*cking short squeeze, bunch of idiots buying this! Amateurs! The professionals are selling into this short squeeze. Sell into strength, they say, that’s what the pros are doing, while the stupid herd keeps buying into...
  17. NoDoji

    Why do 5% of Traders Win?

    That's ridiculous. If you trade with a maximum stop loss of $200 in crude, it would require more than 30 losses in a row to knock a $10K account below intraday margin requirements. The only way that will happen is if you a) don't know how to trade, or b) have serious psychological problems...
  18. NoDoji

    CL Redux

    No worries on that last long trade, I'd already booked 87 ticks prior to it and saw no reason to place a 20-tick hard target 1 tick inside the HOD. The final failed b/o happened so fast I couldn't take the 20 ticks at that point. Good news, RA, and good weekend to all as well!
  19. NoDoji

    Deep thoughts...

    LMAO! Does Herr Hedvig have an angry inch?? http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0248845/ Here's a deep thought from an ET-er a while back, sums up the profitable trader's mindset perfectly, IMHO, one which I continually strive to attain: "The conversion happens when you truly believe the future...
  20. NoDoji

    Why do 5% of Traders Win?

    CL is $10/.01 move. The contract offers at least 10 tradable price swings a day on a 5-min chart, significantly more on a 1-min chart of you're a 10-tick scalper. I watched a micro scalper trade it several days in a row, simply extracting money from it like an ATM machine every few minutes...
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