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the guy in that article is taking directional price risk.... hence all the warnings and his war story... sure theres decay/management cost.. but are you going to try to short the GLD or SLV for decay?

i think he is saying that your valuation is assuming zero interest rates therefore the 40 delta forward price is the current spot price.. fwd price with 40D = current spot..

i read that actually.....

perfect

Develop an endless curiosity about this world.... one can take this to far.. :) haha

look at the frequency.. seems like we are due..

i have always thought that you only know something as well as you can explain it to someone that doesn't have a clue.. IE Me.. most i find that don't really know keep the vocabulary at such a level that makes them look liek they know what they are talkin about but dont... so why doesn't he...

i don't know what Ito's Lemma is.. but i think he has something to do the way or order in which the model is constructed or chained together.. idk.. would love to hear a more frank explanation..

who cares about him... what about the topic.. and a response to my comment?

the funny thing is.. its so obvious you could learn a thing or two from people that know alot more then you.. but you insist on being arrogant.. i wish i could bet against you.. the fact that your arguing with the specific people your arguing with about math.. and in particular THAT math makes...

yeah.. but i just don't get where this circle of conversation about short short etf's and short long etf's has really gone.. if your short a short. your long.. if your short a long your short.. no different then being short the short and long the long... and as well no different from being...

Short a short etf pays in con tango the exact extent that shorting a long etf.. if you short the vxx... (when the vix term structure is in con tango) you collect roll cost... if you short the short (uvxy) you pay the roll cost... its neutralizing... plus you pay borrowing costs of shorting...

+1

If you believe in any general respect that buying low vol or selling vol in high or low vol stocks is so ambiguous that you obviously have no edge. Generalities in this respect are so worthless.......

which book is that..

keywords.. they use different contracts.. midterm to short term.. or even just a different short term roll.. i'm sure vixy rolls slightly different then vxx but this is my question.. you guys are talking about arbing products you don't know very much about... and your looking for other people...

remember aapl will sell off no matter how well it doing if macro winds are strong enough.. your playing both with such heavyweight

I agree with you... but your argument that its gonna reverse is just as good as it will continue...... I still think its a coin flip

More of a coin flip from here... better to wait for confirmation Most believe not calling major reversals is a better start no?

Larger time frames have more weight... and sideways action will result in a similar assumption ... bear flag forming could be as well