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  1. bone

    Is it time to throw in the towel?

    No, but you'd see it in some format or variation at just about any relative value equity Hedge Fund. So, for example, FDX is up 1.26 % and UPS is up 0.21% on the day as I type this. You develop a theme backed by statistical analysis. You try to insulate yourself from broad market index...
  2. bone

    Spread Trading Strategies

    There's a very common tendency for some traders to fade everything. A wild strain of contrarian virus runs in the blood. I'm not saying that describes yourself per se, but it's an observation on my part that there are predilections that can get a trader in trouble - or at the very least, shut...
  3. bone

    Spread Trading Strategies

    I've got a couple hundred clients who might disagree. Generally speaking, spread differentials model and trend smoother than flat price outright names. They are also much cheaper to margin and to hold overnight as compared to outright futures. I've had many, many independent clients start out...
  4. bone

    Crude Oil

    That's true - but the dynamics are different than you suggest. The firmness in Natural Gas has rubbed off on the Heating Oil contract. At this moment Gasoline is off twice the range of Heating Oil. Look at last week - the Gasoline/WTI Crack was much firmer than the Gasoline/Heating Oil Crack...
  5. bone

    Crude Oil

    Firmness in Natural Gas is helping prop up WTI for the time being in the face of a down day for equities.
  6. bone

    Is it time to throw in the towel?

    You will NEVER take an entire trading range out of a trade. Don't count on buying bottoms or selling tops, either. Here's how the traders who do this for a living operate: 1. If they're wrong, they get out. They don't give away a month in a day. 2. You take your little piece out of the...
  7. bone

    Is it time to throw in the towel?

    I'm just going to throw out a suggestion to consider. Since you're in the equity world maybe try swing trading pairs ? Stuff like: FDX vs UPS, LVS vs MGM, DUK vs D Note: go with the trend. If it's a winner hold it. For like weeks or months even.
  8. bone

    Where/how can I master price action to trade it profitably?

    With futures ? F No. You can piss away $75K in a year easy trading one lots like a fool. With minimal allowable shares in an equity name ? Would be a little more reasonable, but IMO not optimum. You need a plan. And you need to work your plan. You need a plan for entering a trade, and...
  9. bone

    Spread Trading Strategies

    I've got over 200 clients who would kill me if I get into tangible, actionable specifics. My sincere apologies. But you should know that spread differentials can be analyzed, modeled and traded. There's usually more liquidity there than the outright flat price instruments, and any major...
  10. bone

    Is it time to throw in the towel?

    A bit of 4chan humor on my part. But learning to code would at least provide a marketable skill for the foreseeable future.
  11. bone

    Is it time to throw in the towel?

    Learn to code.
  12. bone

    NG...Back to normal...

    I don't buy into that with the new production reality in North America. At all. Rolled, consolidated front month data: Isolated contract (in this case Jan 2020):
  13. bone

    NG...Back to normal...

    The Natural Gas Rig count has gone down (bullish), but the current warm weather (HDD data) has been quite bearish.
  14. bone

    Spread Trading Strategies

    Fundamentally driven spread differentials will continue to run well past the meandering statistical variance driven type of spread differential. Until the spread differential overwhelms modeled historical trading ranges you cannot tell the difference between the two. These moves are amplified...
  15. bone

    End of scalping career, before it even begun ?

    I started my trading career scalping in the Bond Pits. I have sat in the same offices as literally hundreds of electronic scalpers. I have never personally met a really good one who could trade (scalp, that is) more than one market. True legitimate scalping in the literal sense of the word...
  16. bone

    Venezuela and the slow down of US Shale ?

    It's quite obvious and well known within the trading community. I've been posting about it consistently for years now. And it has jack shit to do with Venezuela. There isn't some magic tap that you just turn on in Venezuela. Increased economic activity requires more fossil fuels in...
  17. bone

    Proprietary and Self-Employed Financial Trading

    You are actually set up really well in terms of entry. But NOT as a trader. Go to DRW's website and apply to become a programmer. In due time you will gain exposure to trading models and strategies. You can at that point in time ask to become a trader, or if they offer no satisfactory path...
  18. bone

    Proprietary and Self-Employed Financial Trading

    Great point. The firms you mentioned are regulated futures proprietary trading firms and they have a much different business model than the equity shares prop trading model. By CME regulation, these firms are registered with CME and are required to risk only the firm's capital, the trader must...
  19. bone

    Venezuela and the slow down of US Shale ?

    https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/crude-oil.326772/page-6 I have posted, quite literally, hundreds of times (including this week) over the past few years that the WTI contract is highly correlated to the US equity indicies (see the thread link above, and others). In fact, the correlation...
  20. bone

    NG...Back to normal...

    You’re a much braver man than I Gunga Din. I need the market to tell me where it wants to go.
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