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Exactly....shorting now is much riskier than 15 points ago. We are due for a bounce.

Duh....my bad....meant Lean Hogs.

Jim Cramer got crazy tonight about the crash in Pork Bellies and said Cattle was now weak. He was all dressed up as a butcher....it was hilarious. Chicken was mentioned as a low price alternative. Even on Fast Money, the lower cost of feed prices was mentioned as driving profitability in cattle...

Down 4 cents today boys....$1000 per contract ! Interestingly Shanghai equity market has been strong.....so this is counter to that move. This remains a market where there is no logic or reason.....

It sure is. No question about the bleak supply outlook...but now traders are wondering if the consumer will support these high prices. Bad news today on the retail front means the consumer is weak. If we rally back up to the 150 level, I'd say that would be a sell.....with a nice...

145.9 is the low today for the October contract. There does appear to be some support here however.

Thanks for the thorough supply side analysis. Price is based on supply and demand. The bigger question now is the demand side and whether consumers are going to substitute.

Well, well....that's where we stand this morning !! Is this the proverbial line in the sand ?

I haven't looked at the charts....where's support ?

Big pressure on the front months this morning.....reducing that steep backwardation. Where's the short term bottom here for October: 150 ?

Nothing....and I agree with you on the technicals. It's the fundies that I am looking at...with an emphasis on demand for beef: 1) weakening retail demand due to $10+/lb steaks. 2) consumer switch to cheaper alternatives (pork, chicken, etc). 3) El Pollo Loco effect - everyone moving to...

Specifically: reactions to reports like this. http://www.agweb.com/article/cattle_inventory_declines_NAA_University_News_Release/ In addition: price action and price levels. The question is how high can this go for prices to begin to affect demand ? 160, 170, 200 ? Of course, this fact does...

Nice call Handle !! Hard drop past 2 days. There is just so much head-faking going on in this market......it's crazy.

Pressure, pressure.... 1.55 for October. I think the weak demand theme is start to take hold.

Looks like 1.50 -> 1.60 is the "new normal" for cattle...October contract.

Yes, this COULD be a pullback for a shot to new highs. However, this bull run is getting long in the tooth. Price has got to break 160 with conviction for new highs. Talks of a weakening economy do not help the bull case here.

Huge poker game here at 159 even......Wow, the drama.....THE DRAMA !

I happened to be on the Trulia website about 2 weeks ago and remarked what a piece of crap it was. Unbelievable that Zillow paid so much for this web presence. Their only strategy had to be elimination of competition, right ? Given the nature and state of the US housing market, I don't see the...

Yeah Running....that's all fine and dandy, but the huge factor now is DEMAND. My feeling: 1) weakening consumer = less beef consumption (inexpensive alternatives) 2) new interest in chicken with the blow-out IPO of El Pollo Loco 3) health conscious consumers: burgers = fatties All bad...

Dunno, but Oct contract only down 1/2 penny today. High was 159.775. 160 is a huge level.....