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  1. ogarbitrage

    Contango is back

    No chance of OPEC output cut, even after oil dips below $50 - Gulf delegates I have seen some articles in the media suggesting the rise in Saudi's OSP to Asia is a mark of their "strategic retreat". However I believe this analysis completely misses the mark and does not consider the impact...
  2. ogarbitrage

    Contango is back

    US ULSD stocks at highest level ever: EIA
  3. ogarbitrage

    Contango is back

    Contango in NYMEX futures spurs refiners to start producing summer gasoline
  4. ogarbitrage

    Contango is back

    UPDATE 2-U.S. distillate, gasoline stocks soar by record 19 mln bbls I re-established a short position further out on the curve. If we rally further I will be adding. Fundamental picture still very bearish. With the inventory data in mind, I think everyone is saying, "Why are we rallying?"
  5. ogarbitrage

    Contango is back

    Exclusive - China crude imports seen at record as it fills strategic reserves U.S. crude stocks fell last week as distillate inventories climbed - EIA
  6. ogarbitrage

    Contango is back

    DOEs look bearish. Gasoline build of 8m bbls and distillates building 11m bbls.
  7. ogarbitrage

    Contango is back

    Sold almost all of my crude puts this morning. Still holding about 5% of my original position.
  8. ogarbitrage

    Contango is back

    The API releases inventory data on Tuesday afternoons while the DOE releases Wednesday morning. Usually the API is given less weight by the market with most participants focusing on the DOE release. Here are the APIs: API Results week of January 2nd Crude Oil Inventories: -4.0M bbls DRAW...
  9. ogarbitrage

    Contango is back

    The data I saw this afternoon was bearish distillates and gasoline. Hard to imagine with the fleet sitting out in the USGC waiting for cargo. I sold half of my crude puts this afternoon. Will most likely hedge the balance if the rate of decline slows over the coming days. I don't have a...
  10. ogarbitrage

    Contango is back

    Long term monthly chart of WTI:
  11. ogarbitrage

    Frontline (FRO) - Can anyone make a bearish case?

    I see a balanced fleet when I examine them among the rest. I guess time will tell. Thanks for offering a counter.
  12. ogarbitrage

    Frontline (FRO) - Can anyone make a bearish case?

    Crude tanker values soar as earning power of the ships doubles Newbuild prices record marginal change Five-year and ten-year VLCC prices increase The value of a young fleet today will trade premium to value of a new fleet tomorrow in times of great demand. Expect 5 year prices to trade...
  13. ogarbitrage

    OIL: Sub-$30 put volume is quite high: Schork

    I would imagine so. The immediate situation is certainly gluttonous, but I can see a fundamental bid under Cal17 and beyond as the tidal wave of supply dissipates.
  14. ogarbitrage

    OIL: Sub-$30 put volume is quite high: Schork

    Thanks for posting, bone. If $45 does not hold, my next support is ~$32.
  15. ogarbitrage

    Frontline (FRO) - Can anyone make a bearish case?

    VLCCs are worth $90-100m; Suez around ~$60mm so your premise is off.
  16. ogarbitrage

    Frontline (FRO) - Can anyone make a bearish case?

    Thanks for posting. I agree their April debt payment is the biggest issue on the horizon, but I expect them to meet it relatively easily in this earning environment.
  17. ogarbitrage

    Contango is back

    Russian diesel exports from Primorsk to rise 44% in January: Traders Singapore prompt 92 RON gasoline swaps curve sinks to deepest contango in nearly 5 years Med Crude-Urals slips in Baltic, Saudi cuts OSPs to Europe
  18. ogarbitrage

    Contango is back

  19. ogarbitrage

    Contango is back

    Yea, I'm glad to see the media picking up the storage trade. This is just the beginning for Frontline. I expect them to easily manage their debt, eventually reinstate their dividend, and the appreciation of tanker values will send them many multiples higher.
  20. ogarbitrage

    Frontline (FRO) - Can anyone make a bearish case?

    Gapped up 14% on the open. Up 20% on the day as I type.
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