Search results

it was low 40th...Yes , current vols are around 53 , but only one hour ago it was 63...so weird...and crazy volume is still going on , huge transactions

FA , exactly ! Plus the 2000bp ramp on DEC in 3 days , very weird !

FA , thanks for an bid/ask breakdown ; I don't have this info. I just happened to be in JAN vega trade and noticed this unusual ramp in DEC vols...

with this pos ? An amazing 2000bp gains in DEC ( not reporting) month in few days , very heavy 45 calls volume ( COGN at 40) . Are criminals buying ahead of buyout ?

is Q&A transcript available ?

hmmm , heated fat tails debate while Mav is busy with the Live Chat... Coincident ? :) :) :)

no , I was using the ITM's ONLY for reverse calendars (one day position) for certain twist that occurs next morning after report. Otherwise , its just like Mav said : ITM=OTM with larger spread.

RM , agree. Don't forget to put that RC before 4 :)

of course , but I was trying to come up with one example where I don't have to use short+long action to trade vols. I meant to take advantage on stock/vols nominal inverse relationship.

RM , is long ITM put ( when smile exists) is a perceived edge ? Or its a 50/50 bet with ,lets say, 52/48 payout ? In this case I don't speculate on historical data , I am betting on existing conditions only

Short vanilla option's "edge" cannot be compared to casino edge , because it has unlimited risk.

got ya ... profitable trading to all ( even to ones without good BP) :)

I agree with you , but all the above can be put in one sentence "Don't trade without proven edge". And again , this is the part of strategy development and not overall BP . I don't think you can compare trading to traditional business (Japanese car makers) ; many failed businesses can be turn...

you described a strategy (tested , with some kind of edge) with pre-defined entry and exit conditions. It goes without saying that if you don't have a winning strategy (product) then you don't have a business. Lets just assume for a second that your strategy is automated and you don't have to...

Can someone post a practical example how business/trading plan helped to improve a trade that went against you ? TIA

just for a record...Personally , I think that Nancy "Cannot_Wink" Pelosi is very attractive for 66 yo nonna of four. :)

Great...another spammer with 20 posts per day... Busier than Pelosi's plastic surgeon

Daddy , agree , great thread ! Since MoMoney is not here lately , I'll try to sum it up : 1.Overhall , volatility model is very accurate. B/A spread aside , sum of all straddles on 1000 diff stocks will be equal to sum of intrinsic values of puts and calls at expiration . So there is no...

"Edge is meaningless if you cannot isolate all other variables" this phrase should be framed !

OK...here is my twisted take on odds and probs...Once I wrote an "arb" race track's system , which did the following : 1. Take a win odds on horse A ( lets say its 3:1) 2. Take a win odds on horse B ( 8:1) 3. mathematical calculate the odds of exacta ( horse A comes first , B second , lets...