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  1. R

    Anyone notice the calls for "less speculation in commodities" totally died down?

    they just rioted at the CBOT building last week. they are still out there. although the crowd wasn't much, they started at 6am, at least 4 hours before many of the eligible rioters even hit the snooze button.
  2. R

    The ACD Method

    How many years back? We bought some intraday data about 7-8 years ago through CQG but if I remember correctly it was limited to 5 years. NXcore had some as well (dtn) but I don't remember why I didn't get it from them
  3. R

    The ACD Method

    HAD it closed up or unch, gas crack would have gone positive for first day yesterday, but when it fell below unch in rth trade it was setting up for that potential reset to be resistance. Haven't had heat oil crack positive in a long time. I do use a much shorter term nl for spreads though...
  4. R

    The ACD Method

    I agree they are all deeply negative on the NLs....but that doesn't mean you stop looking for the best one to "press". Gas cracks and heat oil calendars have been the only bullish thing in energies for past couple weeks. Crude is s dog and everyone was waiting for a 2 to print and then it was...
  5. R

    The ACD Method

    That 16.20 wcs that traded an hour or so before the lows in crude.... That had to sour someone's day lol
  6. R

    The ACD Method

    The relative value between cl HO and rb. It may end up being short term but we actually are long some deltas in cl today. Qtr A down plus rbob crack action today changed up our posture on inters. I think fundamentally its supported too. Keep on keeping crude cheap so they'll refine it and...
  7. R

    The ACD Method

    if all your energy stuff didn't switch today with the move in rbob and its affects on cracks and inters....you're not doing your job. may be time again to mention what Mav usually beats into our heads....relative value
  8. R

    The ACD Method

    btw...for the energy guys. One thing to note in all the bleakness of the NLs...look at heating oil calendars. yes, the forward curve is still awfully steep, but it has done some flattening the past 2 weeks, while crude spreads running opposite. some crack plays may be looming, and our spread...
  9. R

    The ACD Method

    was thinking earlier today..."how long until the oil charts shown in The Logical Trader look like today instead of 15 years ago"
  10. R

    The ACD Method

    That's what I was thinking....took a yellen speech to get a noticeable rotation higher in nat gas o_O
  11. R

    The ACD Method

    Uh oh, do you know the same guy I know, Mav? had a very interesting call today. Guy I was on the phone with said same thing...50 bps tomorrow...and followed with 150-200 is his range for total rate by Dec 16. Oddly enough, this was coming from the Ag lending realm. I've heard the 1.5 for...
  12. R

    The ACD Method

    RBHO inter spread has had some big fundamental happenings of late. Irving's plant back on line and diesel basis mostly. Best moves in energies haven't been flat price lately. Look at gas crack. 4.25 in 2 days. When the spreads calm down, THEN start looking for NLs to stabilize and bottoms...
  13. R

    The ACD Method

    going into tomorrow, I have a 30 day @ -14 and a 5 day @ +2. 5 day was +6 going into today. That differential of 16 for tomorrow is actually coming down. Our modified NL's were banging out 20+ for differentials last week...gave a big hint to that mess of chop last week.
  14. R

    The ACD Method

    NL's getting ugly in energies. Interesting to note, for those of you who track multiple time periods of NL averages...one of the biggest disconnects in short term vs 30 day NL in crude oil I've seen in a LONG time.
  15. R

    The ACD Method

    haven't seen anyone mention it so I will....its a trade that is getting long in the tooth in the short term, but rbob. that is all. rbob crack and rb/ho and flat price. Should have mentioned this the other day, but yall were having WAAAAY too much fun with stocks, and the only stock I have...
  16. R

    Negative Interest Rates the New Normal Next Time Economies Slump

    Depends on who you deal with. We have some great local banks here, but I'm in a rural area...beyond my area...absolutely not.
  17. R

    Negative Interest Rates the New Normal Next Time Economies Slump

    Therein lies the rub....do you honestly trust ANY of these governments to use it responsibly?
  18. R

    The ACD Method

    all of my NL's for crude are weak and confirmed. 5 day is the second worst of the recent past. Rbob for me was the one that was neutral until a couple of days ago. Its NL was being held up a good bit by the rbob crack. Good grief that thing had a run...
  19. R

    The ACD Method

    I don't know about Mav, but there is a LOT of opportunity in thin markets imo. We aren't trading it now because all of the ACD is stuff is flat, but have done very well in the past in milk futures. Prompt trades 3-500 contracts a DAY. The same goes in spreads of high volume underlyings. Corn...
  20. R

    No Exchange Implied Spreads? What a Joke!

    Just talked with a futures brokerage firm that doesn't support exchange implied spreads....sheesh. What a joke
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