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Interesting that February contract is +7% when January is +9%. Price drop was absolutely crazy (props to Maverick and his ACD back in September!) so maybe its time for a little squeeze. Its winter after all and there were inventory draws even in super warm weather. Question is how far can it go...

My M A down was -1, which is todays lows :) I guess it is an interesting trade for a little gamble

Oil is so weak from chart, made M A down, but my NLs are kinda neutral however RB and HO confirmed negative, Arb confirmed positive and then in last few days great move from almost Monthly A down. Anyone has any insight on oil?

Yeah I see I was misleading, I didn't mean new all time highs... but its not that far either

Interesting article (and the one before it): http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2015/10/trend/

New highs in SPY. Its unbelievable how precisely The Scenario plays out so far :)

I'm sure you discussed this already, but maybe you could share how do you choose products you to track? Its kinda interesting aspect of trading as it is closely related to opportunity costs so choice must be measured. P.S my coffee NLs are positive just to be clear

I have got confirmed numberlines for coffee. Anyone watching it? My NLs is automated though like in Fisher's book so it not always works :)

Markets usually function to mess up with most amount of investors and such a scenario would probably be perfect for that. Shorts and perma bears will have to close out their positions on new highs. Bullish investors who went cash will "realize" their mistake and go back in. New euphoria will...

I had monthly A up for crude, but it closed very weak that day and then fell back for a whole week even trading below the day when rally have started (even though it those price levels were rejected). Prices above 50 were rejected too. It feels like crude will continue to be in a ranging market...

Full show with Ray Dalio if someone missed it: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-09-17/dalio-on-fed-policy-hedge-funds-china-full-show-09-16-

I remember in one of the earlier videos you posted he told that he has another idea that he is very excited about but not ready to disclose it yet. I guess it was China. What do you think would be the best way to express the trade on china banking system troubles if lets say things settle down a...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-18/martin-armstrong-warns-fed-just-made-same-mistake-it-did-1927 Interesting observation, in line with Maverick's violent move up theory :)

Kyle Bass was on cnbc yesterday: http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/15/hayman-capitals-bass-chinas-real-problem-is-its-banking-sector.html

Acting nicely so far. Leadership change today! http://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-34245005

Reporter: Kyle Bass thank you very much Kyle Bass: ....... yeah ..... :D

I don't have confirmation in AUDUSD, but silver has some good numberlines for me so I bought some today. So I guess it is a very similar trade just differently expressed. Are you bullish on silver too?

Thanks Maverick it makes sense. Thinking fast and slow is really really phenomenal book exactly on this topic. If someone haven't read it yet - I highly recommend.

Interesting. It is possible to create a possible fundamental story for such a scenario. Lets say Fed delays interest rates rise until next year which provides some boost to the market. This would even bring some speculations about QE4 which market would have to discount into price. More...

Here is a very interesting article about economics: http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2015/08/debt/ It has some interesting thoughts and examples involving japan so if you are watching jpy and nikkei it might be a thought provoking read. His blog overall seems of very high quality and I...