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How not to get left behind: follow the Financiers Not banks or bond guys, they are bears by definition and sometime they look back-forward more than forward. Per WSJ, Asha Bangalore at Northern Trust thinks “trends in unemployment, core inflation, economic growth, and the factory sector are...

Rather being “topped out” than being “left out”. Per Britisch Banker’s Association, total notional volume of the credit default swaps was at $0.18T in 1997, $0.586T 1998 $0.900T 2000 and $4.8T 2004, $8.2 trillion by 2006. This is “financial revolution” according to bulls...

Red paper bear from china: not so scary Nevertheless, it gapped down major stock indexes, who then realized that CCP bear is a paper one, just like that of US tiger. The indexes have since then been running iterations of “cups with or without a handle” , along a slowly sloping upward...

I like your TA. FA wise, it should fly, a matter of time

TSL, SOLF, and Nasdaq 5000 First on today’s market: Major indexes except for Nasdaq continued marching forward, with Dow Industrial breaking record high and Dow Transport following closely behind on a much stronger volume, making those “Dow Theory” believers happy. Watching those...

Short squeeze not over, rally has room to go The market is playing the script of the last summer: correction started with “stagnation worry”, and the market slowly but steadily recovers from and passes the capitulation point on downside, moves on and eventually creates new record high...

TSL & SOLF: its growth, stupid Some readers complain that I don’t recommend stocks, playing macros only, although acknowledging my “correction pick” of CAF, FXI, etc. Since yesterday, I started talking about stocks such as TSL, with US market’s most recent correction behind us...

The Phantom of the CCP200 Solar I would advise anyone to see “The phantom of the opera”, which is now the longest running Broadway show in history, and the most lucrative entertainment enterprise of all time. But it would probably be a bad IPO, with all the revenue and profit curve...

Goldilocks back, correction over “Street smart” is ahead of “mind of market” this time: Core CPI: 0.1% vs. expected 0.7%; New home starts 1.518M vs. 1.5M Industrial production: -0.2% vs. expected -0.1% Capacity utilization (a key gauge of inflation): 81.4% vs. 81.8% Inflation...

Rally into summer? Stock market extended its rally, with strong international tailwind, M&A, and everything else. I double even if a bad CPI tomorrow could stop bulls. Market FA consensus of “stagnation” has not changed Goldilocks at the beginning of the year: “The economy and...

It’s consensus, stupid Consensus is the point when most market participants, particularly of those institutional ones reaches a relative similar opinion about a company, a sector or economy, on FA side, and TA helps with its technical assistance. When consensus is reached, the...

In front of the rising wall of worries In short term, market is not FA, not TA, not anything, but a combination of FA, TA and everything, with the mysterious “cooking receipt”, which may be “guessed about”, “felt about”, “experienced with”, but can never be really understood...

Bears are free, bulls expensive I am not talking about perm bears and perm bulls, the former never buy and the latter never sell, why bother with them? This morning’s trade balance and PPI number made me thinking of Gavekal.com, one of the analytical bulls for hedge funds, they do...

Why “Red Bears” in China got no paws? Bears had actually been running the shows in China stock market for long time, longer than most can remember, before the beginning of 2006, when china stock index took off. Bears sometimes are thought of “smarter than bulls”: particularly here...

Bears and bulls: just keep wrestling Looking at daily charts of major indexes, yesterday’s selling off crossing the indexes broke the “handle” on the fifth day with a heavy-volume “distribution”, and that’s bearish short term, per IBD’s TA term. Instead of a follow-through...

Roof over Joes” head: too heavy to support? Bears and bulls actually share the same diet: Information. With a strong dose of information, bears and bulls produce adrenaline for their traders. With adrenaline, traders “fight or flight”. Today’s two key FA information are Fed’s...

US Joe vs. China Joe, S&P500 vs. CCP200 It is actually very interesting to look at the following numbers are from US BLS (numbers are n thousands, 032007 Total civilian noninstitutional population: 231,034 Total civilian labor force: 152,979 Participation rate: 66.2 Employed...

this is a good one

Bad is ok , worst is just bad, all messed up By bears, possibly, in terms of market’s reaction to the economic data, including tomorrow’s payroll number. According to ML, many hedge funds and institutions have piled up huge short positions on US equities and USD, betting their going...

“The way we were” A nice song sang by Barbara Streisand in a movie with story about American young intellectuals in 1960’s if I remember correctly. “If memory is too painful, we simply choose to forget”, the song says. Memory, painful or not, is however hard to forget...