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i believe that markets are more efficient with all the HFT & co and trend following may be thing of the past and possibly a trap. 8 out of 10 believes in follow the trend. So if there is obvious trend, price will be higher than what is should be due to these 8 out of 10 entering position...

Autopilot: decision tree based implemented in excel based on statistics of past trades Autopilot will be benchmark I will measure against when making discretionary calls during trade. Say if autopilot says move stop 5 pips higher and I instead exit position will measure actual pl...

starting new thread about my trades. I am hoping to improve digestion of news, fundamentals and sentiment and achieve better decisions while in trade. my trading : 1. swing trade, use stops 2. use fundamentals for bet size, sentiment for timing 3. consider market reflexivity - derives...

WOW ! that is educational :D especially for very short term traders. How easy is this days to REVERSE edge by someone with size following your trades via hidden trade duplication as YOU become target.

+1

cant prove, except forward test. impossible to backtest sentiment, planetary alignments, news, etc... wet dream of quants to create backtested mechanical system based on past price/volume that works like a charm is dangerous fantasy. temporary inefficiencies are gone and actually reverse...

sorry, should be more precise - wave direction and reversals can be predicted in general, regardless of EW theory. EW = suburban legend.

Sure EW works well. However, do not use price & volume as the only input. Consider sentiment - moon cycle news planetary alignments earth magnetic fields as filter. Then out of 100 EW you eliminate 90 and remainder works like a charm

if liquidity stops for a second in all pairs 1 second after big news release, say technical glitch, stops will be triggered and executed at unbelievable prices and one can lose way more than account. do they have any safety circuit for that ? as i understand CME futures have something planned...

who cares what was traded. Paper money buys you smoke, and other fun stuff. It is up time for gold till further notice.

interesting history... i know depression much too well... and it came way before trading so no link there. Hope you wont mind answering this one as well: I swing trade only and doing fine and know that i have edge, etc. After reading your bio, and seeing your shortterm success, got a...

i suspect my style is somewhat similar to yours and get around 10 - 15 conviction, max size, double-up(if going as expected) trades a year. Out of these get around 3 full winners, the rest adds up to zero. It is my year 3 into real trading this style. how many conviction calls per year do...

yup, remember times when it was easy scalping for couple of pips. No way I can do that now. I contribute this to GFC massacre. Noone left to feed on.

one has to start thinking how to win against robots(not just HFT), which I have no doubt will become bigger issue later on and alter patterns. They will connect to internet messaging for live sentiment reading. Will trace groups of traders and derive edge, etc. determining when they hit...

it fells a bit like that...

... as i said many times less trading better pl & lower drawdown....

agree ms has good points. looks like that upsets lots of people. What if it is true what he says about TA ? I share similar view. Then all these guys are out in cold or soon to be. Also a bit of jealousy, i guess.

really worrying how this printing doesnt work. no real demand except if you think demand is man in black buy whole shop and throw everything in the bin during black night. And repeat. We have not done even single year of depression and there is about 30 to go. These stimuluses probably...

while at it... non us citizen, i am after plan B FX broker.. what is the best option these days ? swing trading 5 - 20 contracts. I do not care for spread but to get paid if win. I am leaning towards non ecn broker. Potential for slippage with ecn is enormous. what people think of...

assuming you have winning strategy and can't emotionally handle drawdowns ... you can consider this logic: adopt strategy to allow only minimal drawdowns, tighten stops or/and add time stops.... This will kick you out of some winners but your drawdown will be less, you will be less in time...