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    Data Modeling and Forecasting Swings

    Here is an update of what occurred last night...
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    Data Modeling and Forecasting Swings

    We broke and stayed above the 3x3 on the 5min. We had a Double Bottom with the AV'S. On the 30Min you hit the 3x3, I expect after some initial resistance there it will go through it and make Price Highs. 0030 is a N-1 0100 (0) Zero, and so is 0300 N-1 0330 on the 12-11-2020 forecast chart. We...
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    Data Modeling and Forecasting Swings

    Our next signal is another AV that occurs at 2330 based on the 12/11/2020 N-1 Forecast Chart. Here is my main tool I use for every market and time I follow. It's the 3x3 Displaced Moving Average. (A 3 bar average of the Close moved forward (Displaced) 3 bars in advance. It's nothing new but it...
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    Data Modeling and Forecasting Swings

    Let's take a look at what has happened so far in the night session. Here's the forecast ES 30MIN Chart again for 12/11/2020: N-1 is a 0 (Zero) that is indicated at 2000, but you have to take -1 from that time period which makes a high probability that 1930 will be a Price High. It goes to the...
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    Data Modeling and Forecasting Swings

    Since I continue to see a high percentage of 0's as tops I thought I would show you yesterday's chart for 12/9/2020.
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    Data Modeling and Forecasting Swings

    Here is a new algorithm I wrote, (most fail) but this one has my attention. So I thought I would share it with you. I'll get into the details of it over time and how each move was determined. Actually they are calculated the same way (N-1) with only 1 parameter difference. For now take a look...
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    Do you think this is the truth about day trading?

    Let me clarify my point...Whether you are a long term investor, day trader, swing trader, scalper, or any other type of trader, unless you have fairly sophisticated data models, probabilities are you are going to be a net loser, or have very mediocre returns over time. Yes there are very...
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    Do you think this is the truth about day trading?

    I bought my first stock over 40 years ago, so I have been doing this for sometime. The only individuals I know personally who retired with a million plus from investing were those who bought shares of companies at their IPO's or shortly thereafter, then they continued buying shares up to a...
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    Does IBKR do proprietary trading with own money?

    I was a broker, our firm and several clients cleared through MF GLOBAL. We saw what was going on and got out of Dodge. They had no safeguards in place like firms do today, and there were rogue traders taking advantage of the situation. Evan Dooley was one of them and as he had a massive position...
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    ES Journal - 2019/2020

    I opened an account with AMP and transferred some funds from my TD Ameritrade account, problem solved. Closed my IB account years ago, very overrated in my opinion. I expect, but cannot confirm that IB makes a nice Vig off of all those funds with increased margin requirements. TD Ameritrade is...
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    If you are a day trader with a persistent edge, are you a millionaire yet?

    It was once said, It only takes about 5 years to figure out how to make your first million, but it will take you 20 years to figure out how to keep it.
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    Call buying is driving volatility and a gamma squeeze

    The so called "increase in volatility" that we are seeing is the new normal for these price levels, hence the increase in margins across the board. Adjustments to data models will likely (most have done so over 2 years ago), have to be made. I find volatility indicators in themselves to be...
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    ETF Options taxed as Sec 1256 Contracts.

    It is always best to get such advice from a CPA or Tax Attorney, not forum members. A forum member may have good intentions but that's not the person you want to get advice from. Seek a professionals help in this area. I say this because my CPA just finished my taxes and there is no way would I...
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    Got my welcome letter from Chuck

    There are so many platforms out there that I can't see them doing such a thing but stranger things have happened. I don't need the TOS platform to do business and definitely not for $500 a month. If they charged $50-$100 a month, that alone probably wouldn't cause a mass exodus of clients or...
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    Got my welcome letter from Chuck

    I only spoke to them on a few occasions, mainly when I was setting up my account, they were friendly and gave me the right answers. Spoke to one of their futures brokers and TOS specialist once about making sure I understood how to place a certain order. The guy had been in the business for 35...
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    Got my welcome letter from Chuck

    "This week is just the beginning of a process that is expected to take between 18 and 36 months. Until then, Schwab and TD Ameritrade will operate as two separate broker-dealers. So for now, there's nothing you need to do. You can continue to work with TD Ameritrade as you do today and receive...
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    ES Journal - 2019/2020

    LONG@66.25...STOP@59.25...TARGET@3400
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    ES Journal - 2019/2020

    SHORT@47.25....STOP@52.75...TARGET@37.25
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    Can you company find out if you did not disclose a personal trading account

    Oh don't worry you'll be found out and there will be consequences. Not true...Banks, Brokers, Money Managers do have restrictions, and opening a futures account is one of them.
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    ES Journal - 2019/2020

    OUT@3405.50...+20.
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