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I couldn't get filled on KMX and didn't want to hug the bid. Shorted 1 AZO but it weirdly dumped almost $10 in the last 10 mins before close. I have the $1155 straddle. So this could be really good or pretty bad depending on what the reaction is.

I'm not sure I can go into every direction you're exploring at the moment but I'll try to respond to the general thrust. Regardless if IV is high or low, the avg PnL on your replication of the option will be inverse to the avg PnL of the option itself, which leaves avg profit as the difference...

Imo, a perfect hedge is essentially an exact replication of the option using the underlying at that moment in time. Hedging in the traditional sense is used to isolate the spread between realized vol and implied vol. So you can profit from a favorable vol thesis with less interference from...

Good luck! Don't have anything on myself. Next week has a nice handful of earnings to pick from. Anyone else trading still these at the moment besides myself and TBS?

Haven't committed to a completely hard rule yet. Haven't factored in the ON range actually; that is a good thought. I'll have to think if it makes sense to blend them or consider the ON range as a separate event from opening liquidity for these purposes. Price extremes of the first 15 minutes...

Trying to optimize the exits on these bugs me every time I trade them lol. I think I made like 5 posts on that earlier on. Still don't know what is possible vs. an annoying mirage. Haven't gotten around to getting anything precisely quantified yet. But I've tried to build a little on the...

We'll have to see what it closes at today. Just out but feels like there's still a few more pennies left on the table.

I have small size in GIS. Working on a few other things so I haven't spared too much thought about the recent releases. Was thinking about ADBE but I ran out of time before I was able to give it a quick look.

Imo, to learn more about debit butterflies; deconstruct it into short straddle and long strangle. The components are a little easier to understand in isolation from each other. Just starting out I don't know if there's much benefit haggling over the strike symmetry. Shape of the smirk allows...

I trade SPX options pretty commonly. Far from an expert but here’s my 2c: Comment above that you’re shorting stops. The wings are stops for other people. They buy them to cap their losses. Long wings is the risk hedge. IOW you can’t sell them and offload the risk. You sell them when you’re...

Thanks, that makes sense. I tried my hand at shorter term stuff for a while but found the most consistency building off known risk premiums with lower frequency. With a combo of diversification, risk control, and willingness to lever I’ve been doing pretty good. But as always curious to get...

What point do you consider the line between trading and investing? I have no good opinion on success rates but would’ve thought there aren’t too many people who have the discipline to accumulate >1mm in personal capital and then fail to even tread water. With capital, intelligence, interest in...

But if you bought spot along with a put instead of using the long call to start off the trade now we’re talking (jk)

If you buy something and it goes up $1, does it turn into a risk free trade if you put in a stop at entry? You can still lose your unrealized gain. If dest bothers to reply he’ll point out that short spot/long call is a synthetic put. The gymnastics are irrelevant. 1 DTE SPX gamma isn’t...

At present I've just been trying to do a single hedge when market is closed, after the Jump seems to stabilize. It's better if price comes back toward my strike with a vengeance.. I quickly become over-hedged and can realize even more profits. Or if price continues in the same direction at...

TSEM Straddle + Hedge net PnL was +0.314 SNY Straddle was +0.13 Aggressively hedging the Jump on the long vol positions to reduce the huge swings. Not 100% sure what IV figure to use. I'm calculating the deltas with the exErn figure but backing a little out to allow for the time it takes...

Short SNY; Long TSEM. Been trying to work on a better scoring system to widen the edge. These were today's picks it spit out.

I had this on my list but ended up passing because I couldn't find why the move is so loaded. Lesser degree but found the same thing with NLSN. Don't think these things would happen out of the blue? So it makes me cautious. Hope we aren't passing on free money.

@TheBigShort , how’s the past week been? You’ve gone silent :) Small gain on a scattershot of short vol this morning, but I got trashed on my longs lol. Been trying pick a few more longs so I don’t get too lopsided on short vol overnight, so I picked up BA, GD, and CB. Nothing moved! Wonder...

I'm far from an expert, but wings are way too close imo. I didn't look at the chain but you're neutering your short gamma exposure, especially depending on how steep the skew is. If your thesis was supposed to be that BYND would realize less than implied that doesn't make sense. This is...