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This explains edge:

Agreed!

An "edge" is what allows you to be profitable. The most commonly thought of "edge" is a profitable system. Contrary to the nonsense you hear all the time, this is also the least common edge. People like to talk about how the "edge" is in your psychology, and there is some truth to this...

Fair enough. I mean you could have two accounts and take opposite trades in each of them and one of them will most likely be up after a while. What you would have to do would be to show the trades in the winning account matched the objective rules of your system. Since most people cannot...

"Gurus" will never give you objective rules. Objective rules can be tested and then the "gurus" will have to be accountable for their losing systems. If it is revealed that the "gurus'" systems are not profitable, they won't have any followers. "Gurus" need followers to: 1) feed...

How do you know in real time that it's a bull market?

I stopped posting because no one was interested but there were lots of people telling me I was doing it wrong without providing specifics about how to do it correctly or providing proof that their method was profitable. Someone did send me a .pdf written by one of the traders in anek's group...

Waiting for silver to figure out where it wants to go. Let's see what happens next! Think that recent bottom will hold? I haven't posted in this thread much cuz nothing has really been happening.

I thought it was "smart money index."

What is SMI? Is this a photoshopped indicator or is it a real thing? http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2830179 Looks like it may have hit a big losing trade on the right edge of the chart, though.

I would like to know more about that holy grail indicator.

Yes. You can predict that each individual trade has a 40% chance of losing money. You can also predict that each trade will probably be a winner since it has a 60% chance of winning money. Essentially you are taking the trade because you are predicting that it has a 60% chance of winning...

Random entry is not predicting anything. The only way you should enter is if you have reason to believe that price is more likely to move in your favor than not in which case it's not a random entry because you made the decision to enter in a specific direction because of a specific reason...

Even traders get lucky from time to time. Something being where you didn't expect it to be doesn't have anything to do with prediction. Even random entry is profitable sometimes. Random entry is the only type of trading that is not predicting.

So why would a pit trader take a long position if he wasn't reasonably sure the market would go up? "Following the market" is still predicting. The point at which you decide to follow the market is a prediction of future direction.

Another down day today but still above recent support.

So you don't predict. Why do you open a position, then? When you buy, are you not expecting that price will go up?

Predicting doesn't mean it will DEFINITELY happen. A prediction is what you think will happen based on the data you currently have available.

This. Also this. You two both explained it in a clear and concise manner.

Please review the flow chart I posted. When it "starts to make a move" that is a situation where you believe one event (the trend continuing) is more likely than another. Therefore you are predicting that the trend will continue. Therefore you enter in the appropriate direction.