Recent content by Toad

An interesting discussion. I think the point long term trend following methods that apply similar methodologies to those the original turtles used under Dennis aren't working as well as they used to in the 80s and before is a fair point. However, to say trend following is dead is simply...

Does anyone know where I would get hold of commodity markets data going back to the 1800s? Anyway you know of obtaining this data is greatly appreciated. Thanks.

Interesting stuff. Do you have a similar report for a longer period of time, say 10 or 20 years? That would be very interesting to see what the big picture for these markets is in terms trendiness.

I am surprised there is no gold or silver on either of your lists. Or what about Palladium? Those markets have trended very nicely the last couple of years.

I am short from 345ish...not worried...see how it develops over the next few weeks...

This year I am developing a model for longer term trades on these markets. It's based on buying or selling on the open or close. At the moment I haven't been able to figure out a way of accurately calculating the potential slippage so I was interested in the spreads. As I swing trade it's not...

What is the spread in buying or selling in physical commodities like Wheat?

I couldn't agree more. Besides, most long term bull markets are characterised by aggressive shakeouts along the way to convince people the bull market is over. Me, I want to get long Japan, but I wait for a long term buy opportunity. Could take several more months yet. In my view...

32, London. Former Stockbroker in the U.S and U.K. Former Prop Trader in the U.K. Started trading stocks, then moved to trading stock options then to day trading ES futures. I still manage long term U.S mutual fund portfolios for ex clients/friends. At the moment I have stopped...

I do longer term trades that usually last a month where I use other entry criteria and not candlestick patterns. The reason for this is I have found pit traded contracts, like Lean Hogs, do not produce reliable candlestick patterns. I use candlestick signals for intraday trading of equity...

I always thought a good idea is to go down to the CME and see what the traders in the S&P pit can see on the big electronic board. So, I tend to have on my screen a few indicators that you'll find there. I have tick, trin, NYSE Advance-Decline line, VIX, VXO, premium, Nasdaq, Dow, S&P500 and...

First of all let me say that I respect Steve46 greatly for his market knowledge and trading ability. He does a great service to ET by providing ideas that traders can use themselves to see if it helps them make money and improve their trading. However, I would disagree with his earlier...

I am a big fan of keeping it simple. My advice, try different things and see what works best for you. I used to trade multiple timeframes. The advantage was you would sometimes see a good setup you don't see on a different timeframe. I personally found that it suited me better to focus...

There is on the contrary never any rush as you suggest. Some of us may focus on the bigger picture and thus look to see the reaction to the hammer rather than the hammer itself being the edge. There are many different ways to trade successfully.