Recent content by tim888

Why don't you post the code and results as Bill asked to give an end to this? I have Amibroker and I can verify your results if you post the code. Then we can all agree that Bill is wrong.

Pls let us know your findings.

This is a correction and weak hand shakeout. AAPL is up and IBM is just 60 cents off. Watch those two only. They will tell you if it is a crash or a correction.

The problem is I cannot verify your results. They may be actual but science says that results that cannot be verified mean little. If TSL provided a demo that everyone here - not just those who have the program - could use it to verify the equity curve then your results would make sense...

Here are the OOS results: Only 3 patterns have pf < 1 and the overall pf I calculated comes out to 1.74 on a sample of 167 trades (OOS). I recommend to users of other programs to post results that are verifiable with a demo version. Talk is cheap. Anyone can verify the PAL results I...

Here is another example for XLF, which is an ETF that due to its price behavior I had trouble finding a good strategy for it. The PAL results are for 2% profit target and stop-loss, win rate > 63%, pf> 1.3 and trades > 27 in the in sample from 1998 to end of 2008: In this case there are...

I think you are looking at this from the wrong angle. The OOS performance depends on how many patterns got a better and how worse got the ones that are losing money in relation. The profit factor of all patterns is about 3.2 in the OOS. Commission and slippage plays little role here as this is...

I use Price Action Lab with great success. There is nothing suspicious about it. This program does exactly what it is advertized for and they - unlike other companies, including TSL - do not hype it up and build false expectations. In addition they provide a demo with some restrictions. Whoever...

Consecutive losers (max). PF is profit factor, etc.

Here is the out of sample test. Please note that the program did not have access to the out of sample while it was doing the search: The combined profit factor was > 3.12. In this case there are two short signals. What is interesting to me is that I get very high profit factor for some...

I'm not sure where you got the 3-bar thing. PAL finds patterns with up to 6 bars. Most had 4 or 5 bars when I checked. As far as the 4%, this was just an example. Here is the result with 2% target and stop-loss and win rate > 70%:

A little miracle will help my decision process...but you're right, it is faith that counts. :)

Now here is the OOS test: Four patterns have a profit factor less than 1 out of the 11. The combined profit I calculated to be equal to $105.0261 per share. The buy and hold gain in that period was $27.33. This is a significant result. You can get these results and evaluate the program...

There are several. The most important is that you do not know how they do it. I have an example of a SPY search with daily data I downloaded from Yahoo. I checked the data and they are clean. I used a typical profit target and stop-loss of 4%. The in sample is from beginning of ETF trading to...

I think you have it wrong as far as curve-fitting. Price action cannot be curve-fitted because it is already the curve. It can be biased, I agree, but not curve-fitted. You must review your understanding of curve-fitting. I had the same misconception as you before. I had to go to my local...