Recent content by ThetaSpec

Dear ET members, I would appreciate if you could provide me with some feedback on my personal speculation / investing project. The project is described in detail on my web-site www.ThetaSpec.com. A couple of points to consider: 1. I am not selling anything - the web site is my...

Are you a socialist? Communist? ThetaSpec

secXces, Thank you for your reply. I guess I missed something in my research of technical indicators over the years. I will definetly try harder to learn and understand this field in the future, and hopefully will be able to to find an edge in technical analysis. Best regards, ThetaSpec

I am new to this board, and I am very surprised how aggressive and defensive people get. It does not make much sense. I always thought that the way to progress in any endeavor, including trading, is to constantly get challenged. When I come up with a new trading idea, I send it to my...

Brabed, There are multiple levels of statistical complexity one can use. We always start with something simple, such as linear regression, to see if we can get a slope that is statistically different from zero. We run tens of those a day, to test simple hypotheses, and as you can imagine...

Thanks for your insight. It was more of a philosophical question. I also wonder how much of a liquidity premium one should price in, when checking exotic derivatives quotes from the counterparties? In the example above you mentioned 20-30%? It has to be an exception rather than the rule...

How so? We are talking exotic derivatives, just to clarify. ThetaSpec

Nazzdack, You are correct. What I was trying to say is that when you and I learn about consumer confidence numbers, they are completely useless, and have no predictive power. However it is not how it is presented by the mainstream media, as their implicit message is that lower consumer...

Great post! Right on the mark! ThetaSpec

Kiwi, To determine a probable price movement one has to use rigorous statistical tests, staring at the charts and indicators is not the edge, and will not give a trader a positive expectancy. I am working in FX & commodities risk management of the SP500 company, and because the slightest...

Chart-reading with no scientific substantiation (aka statistical analysis) is my definition of technical analysis. ThetaSpec

First, a good stock market trader, well any market trader, will never rely on technical analysis. I use statistics in my trading, and each market exhibits different behavior as different forces drive different markets. Even with within FX market currencies behave differently ... Mexican Peso...

If one runs a simple regression on monthly changes in the consumer sentiment index and subsequent changes in SP500 or DJIA, one will discover that no relation exists b/n two data sets with R^2 and a slope of the regression standing at perfect zero. This is another indicator that is totally...

I know that institutions do use Black-Scholes and binomial models. They claim that they have the "proprietary" models, but their quotes usually are suspiciously close to the values suggested by the models. ThetaSpec