Recent content by stepandfetchit

Take with grain of salt. This is AI response, not mine: Here's a position trading breakout strategy that aligns with your criteria. This strategy can be implemented on either TradingView using Pine Script or TradeStation using EasyLanguage. If neither platform works for you, I’ll explain the...

I do not have either TT or IBD, so . Just a guess; but the precise time each vendor updates their prices will not be identical. Just a thought, assuming you do not have delayed quotes on one vs the other, and your latency of both are identical enough, IFF the discrepancy is due to slight...

IMO: IFF this is intended to include shorter tenors (shorter than say, 30 days), then the time may be more precisely reflected by using trading time for the volatility related portions, in lieu of approximating with calendar time. (t in your equations could be expanded to reflect calendar and...

FWIW: For these odd products, Not sure "MID" is always equivalent to 'fair' price. -- The BID and ASK on some of these less liquid products are not always symmetrically distant. -- I find that if I have time, then begin with limit set very aggressive, then move my limit to keep from being...

For a short synthetic: short call, long put at same strike, near the money. I began these as a replacement trade for shorting HTB or NTB like UVXY and UVIX. Was simple to see and think about pricing, as it tracked the underlying close enough. (If strike was slightly above spot, then the...

IMO: Duration of edge is inversely proportional to number people (more like amount of money) pursuing it! [edge could be exploitable pattern, or exploitable statistic]

I don't trade VXX, but for VIX, UVXY, UVIX, and SVIX, I find that using synthetics result in minimal haircut on entry and exit (since I may hold for a week to a month, my exits seem to have no haircut) Note: my positions are always short vol, so my synthetics on all but SVIX are short. The VIX...

Correct! Best used with European instruments like SPX & VIX options to have no assignment risk. Note: if normal equity options, even using ATM strikes on entry can become DITM (with assignment risk) if your timeframe is longer. -- If you have reliable idea of where the security will trade...

answer is still 42! :sneaky:

IMHO: Your 'seat of the pants' estimates are what they are.... seat of the pants (implying precision is unimportant, else you would address the question seeking the accuracy you require). Most P&L projections, have the primary error source being the improper accounting of 'forecasted' IV...

In the past, I used ONE (Option Net Explorer) for this. (t+n lines are what they are but provide some insight) However, beware that if you are seeking precision, understand that your assumptions must be correct, as well as 'your" predictions/projections for future (implied) volatility. (the...

Are those magic mushrooms? 1% direction == 100% gain! something is horribly wrong here! May want to gain some understanding before you flush money down toilet. Perhaps if you post what option/expiration, etc and when, you may get some useful feedback.

FYI: IFF -> IF and only iF! Pic of risk profile of the option position for a 1-lot. November expiry, using 350 strike for synthetic long and extra long call, 290 PUT strike for downside risk limit.

Disclaimer: If you enter this trade (see below) and loose money, shame on you! -- You should "own" your own trades. More babble: IFF one expects PANW to reach a new high in 6 months, the following option position could be appropriate for someone (not me as I have no reliable crystal ball)...

Wouldn't one be better off merely purchasing QQQ (instead of a random tech stock) and get a 100% chance of outperforming the S&P index? -- Seems this is getting into the weeds needlessly? - To be honest, I did not look, just noting performance of SPX (SPY) VS QQQ historically. -- kneejerk...