Recent content by rocky_raccoon

If you're talking about Greg Jensen, he was the main presenter on that seminar. He said several things that raised red flags: - he never once mentioned implied volatility - he never talked about position sizing - he annualized profits of short term trades and used it as a sales pitch ("How...

Does anyone have any experience or opinion about OptionsANIMAL? I saw their presentation at an investor seminar and they were talking about 95% success ratio, almost no losses, and the like. I later got on their spam list and received a sample of their Top10 trades. Almost all of them...

I did not make the chart. I found it on the Internet :-)

So, that would mean SVXY or XIV would drop 80% or so. Bad enough but not zero. For XIV it would mean a fund termination as they have a built in stop-loss at 80% decline. SVXY does not have that feature. Here is a simulation of XIV since 2004...

It's all fair game then :-)

If someone says that an instrument may go down to zero they should explain their thinking, shoudn't they?

The institution is call ProShares. If they go under, SVXY won't be the only victim. Besides, it's ETF and its assets should be passed to the shareholders if the underwriter goe out of business. That is one scenario but it is not unique for SVXY and very unlikely. Most people who say that it may...

Can you come up with a realistic scenario under which SVXY drops to zero? What VIX futures would look like in that case and what would happen to ZIV, XIV, VXX, and VXZ?

I wish I had a crystall ball. I am trying to create a position that would benefit from more than one possible outcome. That's all. Buying put is a lottery ticket and I don't play lotteries.

I am fishing for knowledge and I am willing to share as well. Is something wrong with that?

I mentioned in the beginning that 80% decline was possible. I was frustrated that it had not happened at that time but now, who knows, we may see a repetition of 2011 with 80% decline in SVXY. I don't believe it will go to zero though. It would mean VXX going to infinity. As for techniques...

I changed the trigger because market moved faster than I expected. It did not change my opinion of the product. My ideal entry point is 20 - 80% less than 100 top, similar to XIV retrace in Aug-Sep of 2011.

73 puts are at $6.20 or so for July. They are meant to be sold, not bought. All it takes is a mild rebound in the general market and VIX (and all its derivatives) will drop quickly. Buying put vertical on VXX may be a good alternative (July 20/22, for example) to selling SVXY put.

Humor me more: tell me why?