Recent content by nitrene

Last 3 election cycle Sept-Dec performance: Year Sept-Oct Nov-Dec 2020 -6.5% +14% (part of this was the Pfizer/mRNA vaccine) 2016 -2.2% +5.2% 2012 -0.1% +0.8 The 2008 performance is too mixed in with the Lehman collapse so it wouldn't be useful.

I still don't understand why the Chinese handset makers don't create their own mobile OS. They could buy webOS from LG and develop it into what it should have been but Palm never made it work correctly -- I used to own the Palm Pre in 2009 and it was pretty good for the most part. Android is a...

I see your point, however who is going to pay for the CRE bailouts in downtown USA? Are these employees going to pay it? It is not free.

Well if you leave WFH in place for a significant number of people the CRE in urban areas will collapse. Which means the regional banks are left holding the bag of a massive debt write down and likely capital flight aka bankruptcy. I'm pretty sure that is the real motivation for the federal...

I was surprised TLT went lower. I guess the market believes better growth is ahead. Or its just profit taking from the run up to the rate decision.

Stocks wobbling again. Nothing good ever happens when the chairman keeps babbling.

Right IWM & XHB just shot up like a cannon on 50bps. They will get killed if it doesn't happen but the home builders will come back as they always do. The US simply refuses to built adequate housing units for the newer generations to buy starter homes so the home builders can only go higher...

It's just another yearly upgrade. The big boom will be if Samsung & Huawei can ever get the folding phone form factor to work properly at a reasonable price. Then Apple can copy them like always and sell it to the fanbois.

I think only a 50bps cut will move the market higher. The other 2 scenarios and the market goes lower initially and then probably comes back in a day or two. I haven't seen any news except a pandemic, Chinese devaluation or blind Fed QT that really rocked the markets since the March 2009 lows.

If you read Bogle's books, he did extensive research from when there were no index funds and his conclusion was very few fund managers ever beat the S&P 500 long term. I think over 30 years there were like <1% managers that beat the index so I am dubious of a new regime where there is crazy...

The classic bait-and-switch by Uber. Now you are stuck with Uber since Taxis will eventually disappear due to them paying taxes & licences fees. Like Amazon bankrupting bookstores by selling below cost and then raising prices after the bookstore collapses. Walmart bankrupted all the local retail...

AirBnB, Uber & Lyft were always illegal corporations. There existence was always based on regulatory arbitrage. There are strict Taxi & Hotel laws & taxation they just by pass. I still don't understand how they are allowed to exist. I guess enough politicians just look the other way since they...

I guess its a push pull between falling employment and lower cost of capital, however lowering rates won't help most companies for a while. If banks reduce credit card rates it will help retail customers immediately. I think the bottom line is US can't afford to have recessions anymore since...

Unless Disney lowers their prices Disney is just another luxury company. Going to Disneyworld or Disneyland is now only for rich people. It would help if they made movies that people actually want to watch instead of pandering to people who will never watch their films. Ed Bastian is a disaster...

These ETFs do the best in a high volatility security that goes sideways. UBS has a call writing ETF on crude oil USOI that has done pretty well because USO just goes sideways. I bet JEPI or XDTE will do well unless SPY moves much higher or lower.