Recent content by nattybumppo

By "fail," I mean they tend to give premature exit signals during bear markets because short covering often causes sharp but limited rallies well before reaching the bottom of the move.

By "trading like a hedge fund" (which I do not favor), I mean relying on diversification when exploiting liquidity is superior if you are not managing funds too large to do that. Also, rigidly mechanical systems that can be computerized and run without human help. I understand why big funds do...

Not phases of the moon, cycles of the moon, the sun, and combinations of the two. I remember there were 5 cycles total, from a four calendar day cycle to a cycle of approximately 19 years. The dates are not really subjective, except that the inversion point would sometimes flip from a low to a...

Trading ETF's that duplicate the major indices (and futures contracts too) is very popular. Look at the chart as a graph rather than candles or bars and I think it will be easier to draw the trend lines. Nothing works every time, but it appears to work too frequently to be random.

Volatile because they are less liquid. I would only trade them if it were a longer period trend trade.

I googled this, and there are a number of sources that back up your 50% "renewables" (which might include more than just wind and solar) claim, so I will not fault you too hard for repeating apparent "common knowledge." Indeed, a recent source even claims that the renewables share in Germany...

"Nigel Calder, the lifetime climate change denier who in the 80's said that by 2030 "the much-advertised heating of the earth by the man-made carbon-dioxide 'greenhouse' [will fail] to occur; instead, there [will be] renewed concern about cooling and an impending ice age"? Sure." It has already...

Overtrading is not taking "too many" trades. Indeed, the more trades you can do WITH A POSITIVE EXPECTANCY the faster you grow your account (OTHER THINGS BEING EQUAL!), and, perhaps more important, the faster you get down the learning curve. BUT-- having said this, I would argue strongly in...

Use caution. Any overall inflationary spurt is likely to be short lived.

"Even with today's technology you can use inexpensive and relatively clean gas peaked plants along with demand response to integrate wind and solar penetrations well in excess of 50% of the grid," LOL! No, you can't. The engineers have repeatedly told us you can't get over about 25 to 30...

"We know that an increase of that level in that short of a time period is an unprecedented experiment with our global climate." -- No, it's not. The RATE of increase in CO2 is irrelevant. Only the the absolute level of CO2 matters, and that level, although higher than before the industrial...

We might get some inflation, but it will not be "hyper" unless Congress authorizes debt monetization, and so far I haven't heard of that even being discussed.

This looks like the "Delta" cycle system popularized (but not discovered) by Wilder. I have read Wilder's book, but I haven't tested it outside of the examples that he provides. It seems a bit time consuming, and I prefer charts that I can size up quickly. However, it might be worth the time if...

It's not astrology. Astrology is based on Greek and Roman mythology, whereas lunar cycle effects have nothing to do with houses or constellations or the personality traits of Artemis/Diana or other Greco-Roman deities. People react emotionally to changes in the lunar cycle (whose average length...

S&R absolutely work better than chance on major indices. You can draw trendlines and watch the next pullback to the trend line bounce off of it more often than not.