Recent content by maler

In a stagflationary recession the market may go down a lot in real terms but due to the very high inflation, not so much in nominal terms. Most people are anchored and fooled by nominal values and deceptively calculated inflation numbers.

My 2c: 1. lack of edge; this includes starting with a viable edge which temporarily no longer works in the current market environment, or has been priced in by the market and will never work again. 2. poor risk management skills; even if you have a viable edge, if you do not have risk...

Thanks, appreciate clarifying this.

Forming a partnership and tolerating the other partners conflicts of interest.

RockMachine, may I ask what fill assumptions you use in your backtest for the option positions in your strategies: do you cross the spread (lift ask for buys, hit bid for sells) on each leg when you get in and out? That would be quite conservative and it may be possible to get better fills in...

Unless you have a family member or friend of the family that will take you under their wing it is unlikely you will find a shortcut into this highly competitive undertaking. In the old days you could work your way up from clerking on the floor. Nowadays this entry point is gone. Best to...

If your reason for buying remains intact and you have not yet put on all the risk allocated to this bet then averaging down is great. That is why it is very important to know when the reason for buying becomes invalid. If that happens you get out, no wishing, praying, or some other excuses. A...

There is probably a lot of wisdom concentrated in that answer. The right leverage depends on the strategy you are trading and on you own psychological makeup. A math guy can find the leverage for optimal compounding but using that is asking for trouble because any change in the market conditions...

You said you live traded this for a bit less than a year. Does this mean the last 400 trades you plotted were live trades? If yes, then that instill confidence and just keep trading it. If the live trades pnl do not looke like your backtested pnl for the last year then you have a problem. In...

Remember, everybody and their grandmother has a profitable backtest. If you try 20 things one of them will appear significant at the 5% level just by chance. If you think you have something, trade if for real with a little bit of money. The market will teach you in short order things that a...

Your chart is a nominal graph of the S&P. For real returns you need to consider the dividend and also adjust for inflation. The dividend in the slower slope region was roughly 7-8% vs roughly 1-2% in the higher slope region (see for example https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-dividend-yield) Also in...

I am afraid zombified traders do not fare too well.

The advantage of trading futures is that a very small stake can be turned into a fortune if you know what you are doing. You do not need starting capital, you need trading knowledge. Prove you can trade one lot, surely you can capitalize yourself for that. You can accumulate a small stake that...

So that by 2030 you will own nothing and be happy.

I like your doublethink.