Recent content by conduit3030

Wow cool, we pretty much trade the same stuff except currencies

Thanks man, what products do you trade?

If you want to really get into options quickly, try Nadex (no I don't work there, I just think they're a great product)...you can trade for as little as ~$50/option and can really get your feet wet...

Last trade this week... 12/4 - Long ES 2070 strike @ 10:15, Expiry 12/4 @ 4:15pm Cost: 42.25/spread (max gain 57.75) 1. Another *pretty* standard ES long trade - this time the ES and equities markets in general have been tanking for about 2 days, it looks (subjectively) like hte VIX is about...

Nadex - the binaries have almost the exact same structures as options credit/debit spreads without the transaction expenses being as high.

12/4 - Long ZS (soybeans) 897 strike @ 9:56, Expiry 12/4 @ 1:30 Cost: 44.5/spread (about 1.2:1 RR) 1. ZS (soybeans) is in a very strong 15m/1h trend, it just had a strong spike up (momentum) and pulled back...looking for a momentum long in the trend's direction. 2. DX and VX both trending...

12/03 - Long EURUSD 1.0870 strike @ 11:02, expiry 12/03 @ 1:00pm Cost: 47.25/spread (need to be right about 50% of the time) 1. Not a macro trade, based solely on the huge spike up on the EURUSD and assuming continued momentum up given that jump. 2. See 5m chart - don't usually trade the 5m...

12/2 - Long ES 2100 strike @ 9:55, Expiry 12/2 @ 4:15 Cost: $49/spread (so a 50/50) 1. ES has been trending up on the hourly at a steady pace, w/ the VIX trending down and the Nikkei up overnight pretty decently (see images) 2. I like the shallow pullback to the regression zone (1 standard...

12/1 - Long GC 1068.5 @ 10:23, Expiry 12/1 @ 1:30 Cost: 42.5/spread, so about 1.4:1 Risk reward (need to be right about 40-45% of the time) 1. ZN had an absolutely MASSIVE rally - like, massive and fast (see attached image). In the past, GC had been correlating very strongly with ZN to the...

11/30 - Long ES 2087 @ 12:36, Expiry 11/30 @ 4:15 Cost: 33.25/spread - max gain about $65 (2:1 RR) 1. This contradicts the EURUSD short trade put on earlier in the day (ES is risk on long, EURUSD in this case is risk off short)...but I am bullish on the ES as usual and volatility hasn't been...

11/30 - Short EURUSD 1.0580 @ 9:51, expiry 11/30 @ 3pm Cost: -51.25/spread (max gain 51.25 on 48.75 risked) 1. Contemporaneous indications show a risk-off mode - ZN rallying, ES tanking after the 9:30 stock opening. ---> I don't short the ES in the current market environment - not an option...

On Correlations: The way I see it, there are two types of movements among highly correlating (positive or negative) assets: 1. Contemporaneous - the most common - assets move in tandem, whether one is up and the other down (for negative) or they both go up at the same time (positive). This is...

Pre-market ES trade long - as noted in prior posts, given my macro outlook I''m only getting long the ES these days. These have been my most solid trades, I think im 60%+ on ES and I like the idea of focusing on ES longs in the current macro environment. Yes, I'm sure people made a killing...

09/17 - USDJPY long - USDJPY is a proxy for the ES, and when they diverge significantly, I tend to bet on their convergence. In this case, the ES was shooting up (image 2) after the Fed announcement and USDJPY was tanking on a weak dollar (but not a strong yen is the idea). 09/17 - Long USDJPY...

While the above EURUSD trades are just plain standard, this gold trade today (9/18) is a bit sketchier. I like the underlying premise (described below) but have not had much success in GC binaries so far: Long GC 1139.9 @ 9:16 for 41.5, expiry 09/18 @ 1:30. See image 1 Arrow 1 - Entry - got...